Nigeria’s agricultural sector witnessed a notable trade surplus of N668.34 billion in the first quarter of 2025, driven by a surge in agricultural exports, particularly cocoa beans, cashew nuts, and sesame seeds. This positive trade balance, where the value of agricultural exports exceeded imports, signals growth in agribusiness and underscores the potential of the sector to contribute significantly to the nation’s economy. The surplus also reflects the positive impact of the Federal Government’s 150-day duty-free import window, which facilitated increased trade and allowed businesses to access essential inputs at lower costs. However, despite this encouraging figure, agricultural stakeholders express concerns about the persistence of hunger and food insecurity, emphasizing the need for enhanced food processing capabilities and targeted support for local farmers.
While the agricultural export surge is commendable, experts caution that the focus on raw commodity exports poses a threat to food security, especially as the lean season approaches. Exporting raw materials, while generating revenue, deprives the local market of essential food products, potentially leading to price hikes and exacerbating food insecurity. The demand for foreign exchange and the increasing need for raw materials by industries like pharmaceuticals have contributed to the prioritization of exports, but this approach needs to be balanced with domestic food security needs. Therefore, stakeholders advocate for a shift towards value addition through processing, which would not only enhance the value of agricultural exports but also provide more food products for local consumption.
The prevailing insecurity in key food-producing states further complicates the situation, disrupting agricultural activities and limiting food supply to the markets. This, coupled with the projected increase in food prices during the lean season, raises serious concerns about access to affordable food for vulnerable populations. The United Nations World Food Programme’s projection that 33.1 million Nigerians will face acute food insecurity in mid-2025 highlights the severity of the situation and underscores the urgent need for interventions to mitigate the looming crisis. Furthermore, natural disasters like the floods in Niger State have further compounded the challenges, damaging crops and disrupting food production.
While the N668.34 billion surplus presents a positive outlook for the agricultural sector, a deeper analysis reveals underlying concerns. A year-on-year comparison reveals a 12.52% increase in agricultural imports, indicating a growing reliance on foreign food products. This raises questions about the sustainability of the current export-oriented approach and highlights the need for increased domestic production to meet local demand. The focus should be on achieving a balance between maximizing export earnings and ensuring food security for the nation. Therefore, relying solely on export figures as an indicator of success can be misleading; a comprehensive assessment of the sector should consider both imports and exports, along with factors affecting domestic food security.
Stakeholders also raise concerns about the accuracy and comprehensiveness of the data used to calculate the agricultural surplus. The informal nature of a significant portion of agricultural trade makes it difficult to capture the full picture of the sector’s performance. The porous nature of Nigeria’s borders and the lack of full compliance with import and export regulations further complicate data collection, potentially leading to underestimation or overestimation of actual trade volumes. This highlights the need for improved data collection mechanisms that encompass both formal and informal trade activities to provide a more accurate representation of the agricultural sector’s contributions.
Addressing the challenges facing the agricultural sector requires a multifaceted approach. Improving food processing capacity is crucial for adding value to agricultural products, creating employment opportunities, and ensuring a consistent supply of food to the local market. Supporting subsistence farmers through access to finance, improved farming techniques, and market access can boost productivity and enhance their livelihoods. Strengthening data collection mechanisms to capture a more accurate picture of the sector’s performance is also essential for informed policymaking. Finally, addressing the issue of insecurity in food-producing states is paramount to ensuring uninterrupted agricultural activities and safeguarding food security for all Nigerians.
