Nigeria’s Power Grid Struggles to Reach 6,000 MW Target Amidst Regulatory Shifts
Nigeria’s persistent power deficit continues to plague the nation, with electricity generation stubbornly hovering around 5,500 MW despite efforts to boost supply to the targeted 6,000 MW. This stagnation comes amidst a backdrop of regulatory changes, as the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) transfers authority over the Bayelsa State electricity market to the newly established Bayelsa Electricity Regulatory Agency (BYERA). This devolution of power to the state level, while potentially promising in the long term, has not yet translated into tangible improvements in electricity generation. The transfer, part of a broader trend towards state regulatory autonomy, mandates the Port Harcourt Electricity Distribution Company (PHED) to create a subsidiary focused on intrastate electricity distribution in Bayelsa. This restructuring, scheduled for completion by February 2026, echoes similar moves in states like Lagos, Imo, and Ogun, empowering them to regulate their own electricity markets, generate power, and issue licenses to investors.
Despite earlier pronouncements by the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, projecting a generation capacity of 6,000 MW by the end of 2024, and even a brief surge to 6,003 MW attributed to tariff increases, the national grid has failed to maintain this level. NERC’s July 2025 report paints a stark picture, revealing an average available capacity of only 5,577 MW, a significant shortfall from the installed capacity of 13,625 MW. This translates to a plant availability factor of just 41%, a further decline from the previous month. While average hourly generation saw a marginal increase, the overall load factor remained relatively stagnant. This persistent underperformance underscores the challenges facing Nigeria’s power sector, despite regulatory restructuring and promises of improved generation.
A closer examination of individual power plants reveals a wide range of performance levels. Major producers like Egbin, Delta, and Kainji operate at around 50% of their installed capacity, while others, such as Odukpani, Zungeru, and Afam 2, hover around the 30% mark. A few plants, including Jebba, Okpai 1, and Ihovbor 2, demonstrate higher availability factors, exceeding 70% and even reaching 97% in the case of Ihovbor 2. However, these positive outliers are overshadowed by the significant underperformance of other plants, with some, like Alaoji 1 and Afam 1, contributing virtually nothing to the grid. This disparity in performance highlights the need for targeted interventions to address plant-specific challenges, rather than relying solely on broad policy changes.
The stark reality of these figures underscores the deep-seated issues plaguing Nigeria’s power sector. While some plants operate at near optimal levels, many others languish far below their potential, hampered by a variety of factors, including inadequate maintenance, fuel shortages, and transmission bottlenecks. This uneven performance across the generation landscape contributes to the overall instability of the grid and the persistent power deficit. The struggle to reach the 6,000 MW target, despite ministerial assurances and regulatory adjustments, highlights the complexity of the challenges and the need for a multifaceted approach to resolving them.
The Niger Delta Power Holding Company (NDPHC), recognizing the critical need to address the underperformance of key power plants, has initiated a strategic intervention program. Focusing on the recovery of idle turbine units, the NDPHC has engaged original equipment manufacturers and parts suppliers to restore functionality and improve plant availability. This proactive approach has yielded positive results, with the recovery of five generating turbine units and the restoration of 625 MW to the national grid. Furthermore, the imminent reactivation of the Alaoji Power Plant, previously dormant for an extended period, promises to further boost generation capacity. These efforts underscore the importance of targeted interventions and proactive maintenance in optimizing power plant performance.
Despite these positive developments, experts caution against expecting immediate results from the ongoing regulatory changes. The transition to state-level regulatory control will require time to mature and its impact on overall generation capacity may not be immediately apparent. While the decentralization of regulatory authority holds potential for long-term improvements, the focus must remain on implementing policies that directly address the immediate challenges hindering power generation and energy uptake. Critics point to the lack of clear policy leadership at the national level and the seeming neglect of the National Integrated Electricity Policy as contributing factors to the ongoing power crisis. The need for a more proactive and comprehensive approach to policy implementation is underscored, emphasizing the importance of translating policy goals into tangible improvements in electricity supply.
