The Looming Battle for Ogun State’s Governorship: A Deep Dive into the 2027 Race
The political landscape in Ogun State is already buzzing with activity as the 2027 governorship election approaches. While Governor Dapo Abiodun’s second term concludes in May 2027, the race to succeed him is beginning to take shape, with a diverse array of aspirants emerging from different political parties. The contest is shaping up as a complex interplay of various factors, including senatorial zoning, religious considerations, the influence of the presidency and political godfathers, and the individual strengths and weaknesses of the contenders. This convergence of forces promises a dramatic and potentially unpredictable electoral process.
A multitude of aspirants are vying for the coveted governorship position. Within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) alone, at least twelve potential candidates have expressed interest, creating a crowded field of contenders. Prominent figures include Deputy Governor Noimot Salako-Oyedele, Senator Olamilekan Adeola (Yayi), Minister of Finance Wale Edun, Minister of Communications Bosun Tijani, and former Speaker of the House of Representatives Dimeji Bankole. In the opposition, Ladi Adebutu, the PDP’s 2023 governorship candidate, stands out as a key contender. The presence of other aspirants from parties like the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) further adds to the electoral complexity.
The race is significantly influenced by the long-standing agitation for power to shift to Ogun West senatorial district. This zone, comprising various ethnic groups, has yet to produce a governor since the state’s creation in 1976. The internal divisions and lack of a united front within Ogun West have historically hindered its ability to secure the governorship. However, the increasing clamor for power rotation may finally provide an opportunity for the zone to ascend to the state’s highest office. This factor will undoubtedly play a crucial role in shaping the strategies of various aspirants and political parties.
Religious balancing is another key consideration. Given the current governor’s Christian faith, political parties are likely to prioritize a Muslim governorship candidate with a Christian running mate to maintain religious harmony. This delicate balance adds another layer of complexity to the selection process, as parties carefully weigh the religious identities of their potential candidates. Beyond religious considerations, the influence of the presidency and powerful political godfathers, including former governors, will significantly impact the race. Endorsements and behind-the-scenes maneuvering by these influential figures can make or break a candidate’s chances.
Among the frontrunners, Senator Olamilekan Adeola stands out as a formidable contender. Adeola, representing Ogun West, has consistently championed his zone’s claim to the governorship. His extensive political network, strategic positioning, and substantial resources make him a force to be reckoned with. However, his recent move from Lagos to Ogun State politics and allegations about his indigeneship have raised questions and generated controversy. Ladi Adebutu, the PDP’s 2023 candidate, remains a prominent figure in the opposition. His deep roots in Ogun politics, established political machinery, and previous experience as a gubernatorial candidate position him as a strong challenger.
Another notable aspirant is Sarafa Tunji-Ishola, a former minister and high commissioner. Tunji-Ishola is heavily reliant on the support of his political godfather, former Governor Ibikunle Amosun, and is reportedly seeking President Tinubu’s backing. Minister of Finance Wale Edun’s potential candidacy is also generating speculation, particularly after President Tinubu’s public acknowledgement of Edun’s ties to Ogun State. While Edun’s camp denies any gubernatorial ambitions, his increasing engagement with party members and distribution of resources suggest otherwise. Gboyega Isiaka, a seasoned politician and former governorship candidate, adds further depth to the field of contenders. His extensive political experience and name recognition make him a serious contender, particularly within Ogun West.
Beyond the heavyweights, several other aspirants are vying for the governorship, including former Speaker Dimeji Bankole, Senator Suhaib Salisu, and Deputy Governor Noimot Salako-Oyedele. These "middleweight" and "lightweight" contenders, while facing steeper climbs, could potentially disrupt the race and influence the final outcome. The political landscape is further complicated by the intense social media campaigns waged by supporters of different aspirants, particularly those of Adeola and Isiaka. These online battles reflect the underlying tensions and rivalries that are shaping the race.
Adding to the intrigue are allegations against Adeola, including undermining Governor Abiodun’s authority and questions about his indigeneship. These accusations, if substantiated, could significantly impact his chances. Adeola’s camp vehemently denies these claims, attributing them to blackmail tactics. The ensuing back-and-forth between Adeola’s supporters and his detractors further contributes to the drama unfolding in Ogun State politics. As the 2027 election draws closer, the battle for the governorship promises to be a captivating political spectacle, filled with intense competition, strategic alliances, and unpredictable twists and turns.
