Dangote Refinery Cancels Planned Maintenance, Ends Petrol Price Rebate
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (bpd), has reportedly cancelled its planned maintenance for June 2025. The maintenance, originally scheduled for the refinery’s 204,000 bpd gasoline-producing unit, was deemed unnecessary following the successful completion of critical repairs and upgrades during an unplanned shutdown that lasted over a month, from April 7 to May 11, 2025. This unplanned outage allowed the refinery to address necessary maintenance issues, effectively preempting the need for the scheduled June shutdown. The refinery, a significant development in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, is owned by billionaire Aliko Dangote and commenced operations in January 2024, starting gasoline production in September of the same year.
During the unplanned shutdown, the refinery, according to industry monitor Industrial Info Resources Energy, focused on increasing exports of residual products like straight run fuel oil. Concurrently, there was a reported decrease in the export of finished products such as jet fuel and gasoil, as tracked by shipping trade analytics firm Kpler. This shift in export focus during the outage suggests a prioritization of maintaining certain production streams and potentially managing inventory levels while addressing the emergent repair needs. This period coincided with a rise in Nigeria’s petrol imports, which increased by 24% to 157,000 bpd in April 2025, equivalent to 210.54 million litres, indicating a potential gap in domestic supply that the refinery’s outage may have contributed to.
Beyond the cancelled maintenance, the Dangote Refinery has also announced the end of its temporary N10 per litre rebate on Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol. The rebate, implemented as a post-loading refund, will cease to be effective for products lifted after May 15, 2025. Consequently, the refinery’s ex-depot price is anticipated to revert to the previously announced N835 per litre. The rebate had effectively lowered the price for customers to N825 per litre, creating a competitive advantage against importing marketers and private depot owners. This price adjustment allowed retail sales within the range of N830 to N835 per litre.
The implementation and subsequent cancellation of the rebate highlight a dynamic pricing strategy employed by the Dangote Refinery. By offering a temporary price advantage, the refinery likely aimed to stimulate demand for its product and secure market share, particularly in a market heavily reliant on imported petrol. The move also likely served to test the market’s responsiveness to price fluctuations and assess the competitiveness of Dangote’s refined petrol against imports. The return to the original ex-depot price suggests a recalibration of the pricing strategy, potentially influenced by factors such as production costs, market dynamics, and the refinery’s ongoing efforts to establish a strong foothold in the Nigerian petrol market.
The refinery’s initial price reduction strategy, implemented through a post-loading rebate rather than a publicly announced price change, allowed for a degree of discretion and flexibility. This approach allowed the refinery to assess the market impact without committing to a permanent price reduction. While the rebate benefitted customers and marketers in the short term, the decision to discontinue it signals a return to a more stable, albeit higher, pricing structure. This change is likely to be closely monitored by market participants, as it will impact pump prices and competition within the Nigerian downstream oil sector.
The Dangote Refinery’s impact on the Nigerian fuel market is being closely watched. The refinery’s massive capacity holds the promise of significantly reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported petrol and stabilizing fuel prices. The cancellation of planned maintenance suggests a focus on maximizing production to meet domestic demand. The end of the temporary price rebate, however, signals a shift in the refinery’s pricing strategy, potentially reflecting a move towards profitability and market stabilization. The refinery’s ongoing operations and strategic decisions will continue to be key factors shaping the dynamics of the Nigerian fuel market in the foreseeable future.
