The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, after a brief hiatus, has resumed petrol sales but with a price hike. The ex-depot price has been raised from N820 to N850 per litre, a 3.66% increase. This upward adjustment has naturally sparked concerns about a potential ripple effect, leading to higher pump prices across Nigeria. The refinery’s decision comes after a week-long suspension of sales, a period that injected uncertainty into the downstream market and fueled price volatility nationwide. While the refinery has not officially explained the price increase, industry experts link it to fluctuations in global crude oil prices, particularly affecting the refinery’s substantial crude imports from the United States.
The current price dynamic presents a complex picture in Nigeria’s downstream oil sector. While Dangote’s petrol price has increased, the refinery maintains a competitive edge in the diesel market, selling Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) at N990 per litre, significantly lower than the average N1,030 at other private depots. This price difference underscores the refinery’s strategic approach, potentially offsetting petrol price hikes with more competitive diesel pricing. The resumption of operations at the Dangote Refinery provides some relief to marketers who faced potential supply disruptions during the suspension. However, the unpredictable nature of global crude prices and questions surrounding the refinery’s supply protocols contribute to lingering apprehension within the industry.
Despite the refinery’s substantial capacity and the expectation of stabilizing the downstream sector and reducing import reliance, recent data reveals a different reality. Marketers continue to depend heavily on imported refined petroleum products, highlighting a concerning trend. A significant 71.38% of Nigeria’s petrol consumption in May and June 2025 was met through imports, with the Dangote Refinery contributing only 28.62%. This reliance on imports raises questions about the effectiveness of local refining capacity in meeting domestic demand and the factors driving marketers to prioritize foreign sources despite the availability of locally refined products. The continued dependence on imports also places pressure on Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves.
In the wake of Dangote’s price adjustment, the ex-depot price of petrol has remained relatively stable across major private depots nationwide. Prices in Lagos hover between N855 and N860 per litre, with some depots even showing marginal declines. This stability suggests a cautious approach by depot operators, who appear to be observing市场 dynamics before reacting to Dangote’s price increase. The minimal price fluctuations indicate a wait-and-see approach, with operators likely assessing the broader market impact of the Dangote price change before adjusting their own pricing strategies.
A closer look at prices in Port Harcourt and Warri terminals reveals slight downward corrections in some facilities. This regional variation further contributes to the complex pricing landscape and highlights the localized market dynamics at play. The differing responses to the Dangote price adjustment – stability in Lagos and slight declines in Port Harcourt and Warri – indicate distinct regional market conditions and potentially varying competitive pressures.
The situation underscores the ongoing challenges in Nigeria’s downstream oil sector. While the Dangote Refinery holds the promise of greater domestic supply and price stability, the current dynamics reveal a complex interplay of global crude oil prices, import dependence, and strategic pricing decisions by various market players. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining how the market fully adjusts to Dangote’s price increase and whether the refinery can achieve its intended goal of stabilizing the Nigerian downstream sector. The continued reliance on imports also raises questions about the underlying factors preventing full utilization of local refining capacity, which could include logistical challenges, pricing disparities, and existing contractual obligations.
