The global air cargo market experienced mixed fortunes in March 2025, with overall demand showing moderate growth while regional performance varied significantly. Globally, demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), rose by 4.4% compared to March 2024, with international operations contributing a slightly higher 5.5% increase. This growth, while positive, aligns with pre-pandemic trends and suggests a normalization of the market after the volatility of the COVID-19 era. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs), expanded by 4.3%, closely mirroring the demand growth and indicating a balanced market. This relatively stable growth backdrop masks significant regional disparities and underlying factors influencing the market.
One of the most striking aspects of the March 2025 air cargo data was the substantial decline in demand within the African market. African airlines experienced a concerning 13.4% year-on-year decrease in CTKs, representing the weakest performance globally. This contrasted sharply with the increase in capacity, which grew by 10.5% year-on-year. The mismatch between capacity growth and declining demand suggests potential overcapacity issues within the African air cargo sector, leading to reduced efficiency and profitability for airlines operating in the region. The reasons for this decline require further investigation, but it underscores the challenges faced by the African aviation industry in a competitive global landscape.
Several factors contributed to the overall global performance. The anticipation of impending US tariffs, announced by the Trump administration for April 2, 2025, is believed to have driven some of the March growth. Businesses likely engaged in “front-loading,” accelerating shipments to avoid higher import fees slated to take effect the following month. This artificial surge in demand may have temporarily inflated the March figures, potentially leading to a subsequent slowdown in the following months. The uncertainty surrounding the final implementation of these tariffs creates a volatile environment for international trade and could negatively impact future air cargo demand.
Beyond the tariff issue, several other economic indicators influenced the air cargo market. A nine-month streak of declining jet fuel prices provided a welcome cost relief for airlines. Lower fuel costs translate into lower operating expenses, potentially boosting profitability. Furthermore, global industrial output grew by 3.2% year-on-year, and world trade volumes expanded by 2.9%, both contributing to the increased demand for air cargo services. Cooling consumer price inflation in major economies like the US, EU, and Japan further stabilized the economic environment, although China remained in deflation, albeit at a lessening rate.
Regional variations in air cargo performance were pronounced. Asia-Pacific airlines led the way with a 9.6% year-on-year surge in demand, coupled with an 11.3% capacity expansion. North American carriers closely followed with a 9.5% demand growth and a 6.1% capacity increase. These regions benefited from robust economic activity and the front-loading effect related to the US tariff announcement. European carriers experienced more moderate growth, with a 4.5% increase in demand and a 2.0% capacity expansion.
In contrast to the positive growth in the aforementioned regions, the Middle East experienced a 3.2% decline in demand, despite a marginal 0.8% capacity increase. This weakness is potentially attributable to the high base effect from the previous year, which saw significant growth due to disruptions in Red Sea maritime freight. Latin American carriers registered a 5.8% growth in demand and a 4.7% capacity expansion, indicating healthy growth in the region.
The March 2025 air cargo data provides a snapshot of a market navigating a complex interplay of factors. While overall global demand showed moderate growth, driven by economic expansion and preemptive buying ahead of tariff changes, regional performance diverged substantially. Africa’s significant decline in demand raises concerns, while Asia-Pacific and North America experienced robust growth. The looming uncertainty surrounding trade policies and geopolitical factors will likely continue to shape the air cargo market in the coming months. Ongoing monitoring of these indicators and a deeper understanding of regional dynamics will be crucial for stakeholders in the air cargo industry to effectively navigate the evolving landscape.
