The removal of fuel subsidies in Nigeria under President Bola Tinubu has had a significant impact on neighboring Niger Republic, disrupting its fuel supply and economy. For years, Niger relied on smuggled petrol from Nigeria, subsidized and thus cheaper, for approximately half of its consumption. Tinubu’s decision to eliminate the subsidy, coupled with tightened border security, drastically reduced smuggling, causing fuel shortages and price hikes in Niger. The country’s sole refinery, Soraz, struggles to meet domestic demand, leaving Niger grappling with an unprecedented fuel crisis. The price of petrol in Niger has soared, impacting economic activities and forcing the junta-led government to seek assistance from Nigeria.
Despite political tensions stemming from the coup in Niger and subsequent ECOWAS sanctions, Nigeria agreed to supply 300 trucks of petrol to its neighbor. This move is seen as a strategic bargaining tool by Nigeria, aiming to leverage the fuel supply to encourage Niger’s return to ECOWAS and a democratic government. While Nigerian oil marketers acknowledge the capacity to assist Niger without jeopardizing domestic supply, given the increased production from local refineries and imports, the situation highlights the interconnectedness of the two nations and the potential for economic leverage in diplomatic negotiations. The fuel crisis in Niger has been exacerbated by the junta’s confrontational approach with Chinese oil companies, further disrupting the country’s already fragile petroleum sector.
Paradoxically, trade between Nigeria and Niger surged by 82% in 2024, despite the political standoff. This increase was primarily driven by a significant rise in Nigerian exports to Niger, indicating a continued reliance on Nigerian goods. Imports from Niger also recovered, suggesting a degree of resilience in economic ties. The data reveals that even amid political tensions, underlying economic needs and established trade routes continue to exert a strong influence on bilateral exchanges. This complex relationship underscores the challenge of balancing political considerations with economic realities.
A deeper look at the trade data reveals that Nigerian exports to Niger dominate the trade relationship, comprising nearly 90% of the total trade volume. Key imports from Niger to Nigeria include agricultural products like dates, raw materials like hides and skins, and cement. This composition highlights Niger’s reliance on Nigeria for manufactured goods and other essential commodities, while Nigeria benefits from Niger’s supply of certain raw materials and agricultural products. The significant increase in cement imports from Niger could be indicative of infrastructure projects within Nigeria, demonstrating the dynamic nature of trade flows and the influence of specific sectoral demands.
Beyond Niger, Nigeria’s trade with other Sahel nations, Burkina Faso and Mali, has also experienced significant fluctuations. While trade with Burkina Faso experienced a moderate increase, trade with Mali witnessed a dramatic surge, primarily due to a massive increase in imports from Mali. This unprecedented rise raises questions about the underlying factors driving this shift and the potential impact on the existing trade dynamics. These changing trade patterns coincide with the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States, a regional bloc comprising Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, suggesting a potential realignment of economic partnerships in the region.
These evolving trade relationships occur against thebackdrop of complex geopolitical dynamics in the West African sub-region. The formation of the Alliance of Sahel States, the ongoing ECOWAS sanctions, and the activation of the ECOWAS standby force to combat terrorism all contribute to an uncertain and dynamic environment. While economic ties persist and even strengthen in some cases, the long-term trajectory of these relationships remains contingent on the resolution of the political crises and the evolving security landscape. The free movement of people and goods within ECOWAS, despite political tensions, underscores the importance of regional integration and the efforts to mitigate the economic fallout from political disputes.
