The 2024 Ghanaian general election witnessed a significant shift in the political landscape, with the National Democratic Congress (NDC) reclaiming power from the incumbent New Patriotic Party (NPP). While some within the NPP attributed their defeat to voter apathy, particularly amongst their traditional strongholds, research conducted by Global InfoAnalytics presents a more nuanced picture. Their analysis challenges the apathy narrative, highlighting instead the substantial impact of voter switching as a key factor in the NPP’s loss. The research firm’s data reveals that while voter turnout may have indeed been a factor, a significant portion of the NPP’s 2020 voters opted to support the NDC’s John Dramani Mahama in the 2024 election, contributing significantly to his victory.
Global InfoAnalytics’ findings underscore the dynamism of the Ghanaian electorate and the fluidity of voter allegiances. The notion that certain regions are unwavering bastions of support for either party is challenged by the data showing significant voter shifts across the country. The NPP’s assertion that their supporters stayed home, thereby handing the election to the NDC, is directly contradicted by the evidence. The research demonstrates that a considerable number of voters who participated in both the 2020 and 2024 elections actively chose to switch their support from the NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo to John Mahama, contributing directly to the NDC’s victory.
The detailed analysis of voter switching patterns across various regions further illuminates the complexities of this electoral shift. While the NPP did experience gains in some regions, particularly in Ashanti and North East, where they saw a net gain of 8% and 16% respectively due to voters switching from Mahama to Bawumia, these were overshadowed by the substantial gains made by the NDC in 14 other regions. The Volta Region stood out with a remarkable 36% net gain for Mahama, followed by Savannah (35%) and Western (27%). These significant swings underline the NDC’s successful mobilization of voters and its ability to attract support from demographics previously aligned with the NPP.
Further emphasizing the NDC’s widespread appeal, regions like Greater Accra, Central, and Upper East also witnessed substantial shifts towards Mahama. The data exposes a clear trend: while the NPP managed to attract some voters from the NDC, the overall flow of support moved significantly in the opposite direction. On average, 22% of voters who supported Nana Akufo-Addo in 2020 switched to John Mahama in 2024, compared to only 10% who switched from Mahama to Bawumia. This disparity clearly illustrates the magnitude of the shift in voter preference, suggesting a significant erosion of the NPP’s support base and a corresponding surge in support for the NDC.
The results of the 2024 Ghanaian election, as declared by the Electoral Commission Chairperson Jean Mensa on December 9th, confirmed John Dramani Mahama’s decisive victory with 56.55% of the valid votes cast. This victory, coupled with the NPP’s significant loss of parliamentary seats, reducing their representation to around 80 seats in the 276-member parliament, paints a clear picture of widespread voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent party. These figures resonate with the Global InfoAnalytics findings, indicating that the electorate actively sought a change in leadership and representation.
In conclusion, the Global InfoAnalytics study provides valuable insights into the dynamics of the 2024 Ghanaian elections. By challenging the narrative of voter apathy and highlighting the significant role of voter switching, it offers a more comprehensive understanding of the factors that contributed to the NDC’s resounding victory. The research demonstrates that a significant portion of the electorate actively chose to switch allegiances, reflecting a shift in political preferences that ultimately reshaped the political landscape. The data underscores the importance of understanding the motivations behind voter choices and the need for political parties to engage with the electorate in a meaningful and responsive manner to secure their support. The election outcome signals a clear mandate for change and underscores the dynamic nature of political allegiances in Ghana.
