The 2024 Ghanaian presidential election witnessed a significant shift in voter allegiance, with a substantial number of voters who supported Nana Akufo-Addo in the 2020 election switching their support to John Dramani Mahama. An analysis conducted by Global InfoAnalytics, an independent research firm, revealed that 22% of Akufo-Addo’s 2020 voters opted for Mahama in the 2024 election. This revelation challenges the narrative of voter apathy within the New Patriotic Party (NPP) as the primary reason for their defeat. Instead, the data suggests a conscious decision by a considerable portion of former NPP supporters to switch their votes to the opposition candidate. This shift in voter preference played a crucial role in Mahama’s victory and the NPP’s significant electoral setback.
The Global InfoAnalytics report provides a detailed regional breakdown of voter movement between the two leading candidates: Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of the NPP and John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC). While the NPP saw some gains in specific regions, the overall trend favored Mahama. In the Ashanti Region, considered an NPP stronghold, Bawumia gained a net 8% of voters, primarily due to more Mahama voters switching to him than Akufo-Addo voters switching to Mahama. However, this gain was overshadowed by Mahama’s substantial net gains in 14 out of the 16 regions. The Volta Region saw the most significant shift, with a 36% net gain for Mahama, followed by Savannah (35%), Western (27%), and Greater Accra (23%). This widespread voter realignment underscores the magnitude of the shift in public sentiment against the NPP.
The report highlights the contrasting average switch rates between the two candidates. While an average of 22% of Akufo-Addo voters switched to Mahama, only an average of 10% of Mahama voters switched to Bawumia. This disparity further reinforces the narrative of a significant voter shift away from the NPP rather than mere voter apathy. The analysis dismantles the theory that the NPP’s loss was primarily due to its supporters staying home. The evidence suggests active participation by voters, including a considerable number who voted in 2020 but chose to support the opposition in 2024. This indicates a deeper dissatisfaction with the NPP’s performance and a conscious decision by voters to seek an alternative.
The 2024 election results, as declared by Electoral Commission Chairperson Jean Mensa, saw John Dramani Mahama secure a decisive victory with 56.55% of the votes, while Dr. Bawumia trailed with 41.61%. This outcome represents the NPP’s most significant electoral defeat in decades, reflecting a substantial decline in public support. The party’s parliamentary representation also suffered a severe blow, shrinking to approximately 80 seats out of the 276 constituencies. This dramatic reduction in parliamentary seats further emphasizes the widespread rejection of the NPP and the resounding endorsement of the NDC’s campaign message. The election results signify a major shift in the political landscape of Ghana.
The Global InfoAnalytics report provides crucial insights into the dynamics of the 2024 Ghanaian presidential election. The data reveals that the NPP’s defeat was not solely due to voter apathy within its base but rather a significant shift in voter preference towards the opposition. A substantial number of voters who had supported Akufo-Addo in 2020 chose to vote for Mahama in 2024, contributing to the NDC’s decisive victory. This shift in voter allegiance was evident across multiple regions, with Mahama recording significant net gains in 14 out of the 16 regions. The report’s findings challenge the narrative of voter apathy and highlight the importance of understanding the motivations behind voter decisions.
The 2024 election outcome represents a major turning point in Ghanaian politics, signaling a significant shift in public sentiment and a resounding endorsement of the NDC’s platform. The NPP’s substantial losses in both the presidential and parliamentary races underscore the depth of the public’s dissatisfaction with the party’s performance. The Global InfoAnalytics report provides valuable data that sheds light on the underlying factors contributing to this electoral shift, particularly the significant number of voters who switched their allegiance from Akufo-Addo to Mahama. This information is critical for understanding the evolving political landscape in Ghana and the challenges facing the NPP as it attempts to regain public trust and support.
