The African aviation sector is experiencing a surge in cargo demand, outpacing global growth trends and solidifying the continent’s position in international trade. In July 2025, African airlines witnessed a remarkable 9.4% increase in cargo demand compared to the same period in 2024, nearly double the global average of 5.5%. This growth underscores the expanding role of African carriers in facilitating global commerce and connecting the continent to key markets worldwide. However, this surge in demand presents operational challenges, as cargo capacity experienced a slight contraction of 0.1%. This capacity constraint highlights the need for African airlines to invest in infrastructure and expand their fleets to accommodate the growing volume of goods transported by air.
The positive trajectory of air cargo demand in Africa is driven by robust regional trade within the continent and increasing connectivity with major global markets. This growth is occurring despite a marginal decrease in cargo capacity, indicating the strong underlying demand for airfreight services. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) attributes this positive momentum to the resilience of intra-African trade and the expanding network of air routes linking African countries with key international trading hubs. This expansion in connectivity not only facilitates the movement of goods but also fosters economic growth and integration within the continent and beyond.
Globally, air cargo demand exhibited a 5.5% year-on-year increase in July 2025, with international operations growing by 6.0%. This growth was supported by a 3.9% expansion in global cargo capacity, primarily driven by a 4.5% increase in capacity for international operations. Regional performance, however, varied considerably. Asia-Pacific airlines led the growth with an impressive 11.1% increase in demand, fueled by the continued expansion of the Europe-Asia trade route, which registered a robust 13.5% growth for the 29th consecutive month. This sustained growth on the Europe-Asia corridor reflects the strength and dynamism of trade relations between these two regions.
In contrast, North American carriers experienced the weakest performance, with demand growing by a mere 0.7% while capacity contracted by 0.6%. Several factors contributed to this sluggish growth, including changing US trade policies, particularly the expiration of de minimis exemptions on small shipments and increasing import tariffs. These policy changes have created uncertainty and added complexities to trade flows, impacting North America-bound cargo. European carriers saw a more moderate growth of 4.1% in demand, while Middle Eastern and Latin American airlines registered increases of 2.6% and 2.4%, respectively. These varying regional performances highlight the complex interplay of factors influencing global air cargo demand, including economic conditions, trade policies, and regional market dynamics.
The overall performance of the air cargo sector in July 2025 was shaped by global trade conditions and fuel prices. Global goods trade expanded by 3.1% year-on-year in June, providing a supportive backdrop for air cargo growth. Lower jet fuel prices, down 9.1% year-on-year in July, offered some relief to airlines by reducing operating costs, although prices did increase by 4.3% compared to June. This fluctuation in fuel prices reflects the volatility of the global energy market and its impact on airline profitability.
Furthermore, global manufacturing activity contracted during July, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) falling below the 50-mark threshold, indicating a decline in manufacturing output. New export orders also remained subdued, reflecting weakening business confidence amid ongoing uncertainties, particularly related to US trade policy changes. These policy changes, including the expiration of de minimis exemptions and rising import tariffs, have created headwinds for global trade and contributed to the slowdown in manufacturing activity. While these policy shifts primarily impact North America-bound cargo, their ripple effects are felt across global supply chains and influence overall trade sentiment. Despite these challenges, the resilience of African and Asian markets, coupled with the strong performance of the Europe-Asia trade lane, offer positive signs for the future of the air cargo sector.
