Osei Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu, a prominent figure within the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and former Majority Leader of Parliament, has offered a candid post-election analysis, revealing the party’s internal awareness of their vulnerability leading up to the 2024 Ghanaian presidential elections. According to Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu, who also chaired the NPP’s manifesto committee, pre-election assessments painted a grim picture, predicting a significant loss for their candidate, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, had the elections been held in August 2024. He estimates that Bawumia’s support would have hovered around a mere 30% of the vote, a stark contrast to the final result. This alarming projection, Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu explains, stemmed primarily from the prevailing economic hardships faced by the nation at that time.
Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu’s assessment underscores the perceived direct link between the electorate’s sentiment and the prevailing economic climate. The interview on Kumasi-based Nhyira FM revealed his belief that the economic struggles significantly eroded public confidence in the NPP and, by extension, their presidential candidate. Although internal anxieties existed within the party, they maintained a flicker of hope for an improved outcome. The postponement of the elections from August to December, according to Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu, proved to be a critical turning point. This delay, he argues, allowed the NPP to regain some lost ground as the economic situation began to show signs of improvement, directly impacting voter perception and ultimately contributing to a better-than-predicted performance.
The timing of the election, therefore, becomes a central factor in understanding the NPP’s performance. Had the election taken place in August, amidst the peak of economic hardship, Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu believes the NPP would have suffered a crushing defeat. He postulates that John Mahama, the main opposition candidate, would have capitalized on the widespread discontent, securing a landslide victory based on the NPP’s internal projections. The delayed election, however, provided a window of opportunity for the NPP. The improving economic conditions during the intervening months allowed them to mitigate some of the negative sentiment and claw back some support, although it ultimately proved insufficient to secure victory.
This analysis reveals a fascinating internal perspective on the dynamics of the 2024 Ghanaian elections. It highlights the crucial role economic performance plays in shaping voter decisions and illustrates how shifting economic tides can significantly impact electoral outcomes. Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu’s statements offer a rare glimpse into the pre-election anxieties within the NPP and shed light on the party’s strategic calculations based on their assessment of the political landscape. It also underscores the volatility of public opinion and the dynamic interplay between economic conditions and electoral fortunes.
The final election results, with Bawumia securing 41.75% of the vote against Mahama’s 56.42%, partially vindicate Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu’s analysis. While the NPP did not win, they managed to significantly improve their projected performance from the dismal 30% predicted for an August election. This improvement, according to Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu, can be attributed directly to the improved economic conditions in the months leading up to the December election. The difference between the projected 30% and the actual 41.75% represents a substantial gain, highlighting the impact of the economic recovery on voter sentiment.
In conclusion, Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu’s candid assessment provides valuable insights into the NPP’s internal pre-election calculations and the significant influence of economic factors on voter behavior. The dramatic shift in projected outcome from a potential 30% in August to the eventual 41.75% in December underscores the dynamic nature of electoral politics and the importance of economic stability in shaping public opinion. His observations serve as a crucial post-election analysis, providing a valuable understanding of the factors at play in the 2024 Ghanaian presidential election. The NPP’s experience serves as a case study in the interconnectedness of economic performance and political success, offering important lessons for future campaigns and governance.
