Paragraph 1: Import Dependence Persists Despite Local Refining Capacity
Despite the operationalization of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Nigeria’s reliance on imported refined petroleum products remains substantial. Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) reveals that imports accounted for a staggering 71.38% of the nation’s petrol consumption in May and June 2025. This equates to 2.32 billion litres out of a total consumption of 3.25 billion litres during those two months. In contrast, the Dangote Refinery, a $20 billion investment, contributed only 28.62%, or 927 million litres. This heavy reliance on imports raises concerns about the effective utilization of local refining capacity and the drain on Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves.
Paragraph 2: Detailed Breakdown of Import and Local Production Figures
A closer examination of the NMDPRA data reveals the extent of import dependence on a monthly basis. In June 2025, imported petrol averaged 34.10 million litres per day, totaling 1.023 billion litres for the month. Local production, on the other hand, amounted to a mere 15.2 million litres per day, or 455.18 million litres for the month. The situation was similar in May 2025, where imports averaged 43.22 million litres daily (1.297 billion litres total), dwarfing local production of 15.74 million litres daily (472.07 million litres total). This data clearly illustrates the dominance of imported petroleum products in the Nigerian market, despite the presence of a major local refinery.
Paragraph 3: Distribution, Consumption Patterns, and Financial Implications
The NMDPRA data also sheds light on distribution patterns and consumption trends. While 455.2 million litres of petrol were trucked out directly from refineries in June, the majority (985.6 million litres) originated from depots, representing an 18.55% increase compared to May. Average daily distribution stood at 48 million litres in June, down from 54 million litres in May. Lagos State emerged as the highest consumer, accounting for 205.66 million litres, followed by Ogun State (88.69 million litres) and the Federal Capital Territory (77.5 million litres). The total expenditure on imported petrol during May and June reached N2.1 trillion, based on an average pump price of N905 per litre. This substantial outlay underscores the financial burden of import dependency.
Paragraph 4: Import Dependence Extends Beyond Petrol
The reliance on imports is not limited to Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol. Data from the NMDPRA shows that over 99% of Aviation Turbine Kerosene (ATK) and Household Kerosene (HHK) consumed in May and June also came from imports. Similarly, while there was a slight increase in local production of Automotive Gas Oil (diesel), imports still dominated, rising from a daily average of 7.3 million litres in May to 8.7 million litres in June. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) was entirely imported, with 116.4 million litres imported in May but no supply recorded for June. This widespread import dependence across multiple petroleum product categories highlights a systemic challenge in the Nigerian downstream sector.
Paragraph 5: Conflicting Perspectives on Import Bans and Market Competition
The high import volumes have reignited debate surrounding the role of local refineries versus imports. Dangote Group President, Aliko Dangote, has publicly advocated for the inclusion of refined petroleum products in the government’s “Nigeria First” policy, effectively banning their importation. He argues that imports stifle local refining and discourage investment. However, this proposal has met strong opposition from oil marketers, industry analysts, and experts who warn against creating a monopoly. The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) stresses the importance of competition and emphasizes that Dangote’s prices are not the cheapest on the market. They suggest focusing on competitive pricing rather than legislative bans to phase out imports.
Paragraph 6: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook
Analysis of the market dynamics reveals a complex interplay of factors influencing the current import reliance. Industry experts point to importers’ ability to secure cheaper landing costs compared to Dangote Refinery’s coastal pricing structure. This has led to a situation where many importers and private depots are selling petrol at lower prices than Dangote, creating a challenging environment for the refinery. As Dangote prepares to ramp up its supply in mid-August, industry observers anticipate further market adjustments and potential policy shifts. Some experts also caution against imposing import bans, emphasizing the need for diverse supply sources to ensure energy security and avoid monopolistic tendencies. They advocate for a more liberalized market that encourages competition and fosters a broader base of product supply before considering import restrictions.
