The upcoming Akwatia by-election has become a focal point of political tension in Ghana, with recent polling data suggesting a potential upset for the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP). A survey conducted by Global InfoAnalytics paints a picture of internal divisions within the NPP, eroding their support base and bolstering the chances of their main rival, the National Democratic Congress (NDC). The poll reveals a significant shift in voter allegiance, with a substantial 24% of constituents who previously voted for the late NPP MP, Ernest Yaw Kumi, now indicating their intention to support the NDC candidate in the by-election. This represents a considerable blow to the NPP’s hopes of retaining the seat and highlights the deep-seated impact of intra-party discord.
The erosion of NPP support is further exacerbated by a net loss of voters to the NDC. While the NPP has managed to attract a small percentage of former NDC voters, this gain is dwarfed by the outflow of their own supporters to the opposition. The poll indicates a net 8% advantage for the NDC, reflecting a worrying trend for the NPP and underscoring the potential consequences of their internal struggles. This dynamic is particularly evident in Wenchi, traditionally a stronghold for the NPP and often referred to as their “world bank” in Akwatia. Here, the NPP candidate, Solomon Asumadu, has experienced a dramatic 28% drop in support within a mere three weeks, highlighting the rapid deterioration of the party’s standing in this crucial area.
Adding to the NPP’s woes is the apparent failure of the sympathy vote to significantly impact the election dynamics. While some voters may be inclined to support the NPP out of sympathy following the death of their MP, this factor appears to be overshadowed by other considerations, particularly development. Furthermore, the poll reveals that the majority of those intending to vote based on sympathy have lower levels of education, suggesting that this demographic is not large enough to significantly alter the overall outcome. This suggests a deeper issue for the NPP; they are failing to connect with voters on a fundamental level, beyond emotional appeals.
The NDC, on the other hand, seems to be capitalizing on the NPP’s internal strife and focusing on issues that resonate with the electorate. Their candidate, Lawyer Bernard Bediako, is projected to secure 53% of the votes, a comfortable lead over Asumadu’s projected 47%. This projected victory is attributed to several factors, including a focus on development initiatives and strong support among younger, more educated voters. The NDC’s appeal to this demographic, particularly those at the secondary and tertiary education levels, suggests a forward-looking approach that resonates with a key segment of the electorate. This focus on development and educational attainment contrasts sharply with the NPP’s apparent struggles to maintain unity and address the concerns of their constituents.
The shift in voter preference towards the NDC implies a growing dissatisfaction with the NPP’s performance and a desire for change. The NDC’s emphasis on development resonates with voters who prioritize tangible improvements in their communities. This focus, coupled with the NPP’s internal divisions, creates a favorable environment for the NDC to potentially wrest control of the Akwatia seat. The by-election serves as a microcosm of the larger political landscape, reflecting the broader challenges facing the NPP and the potential opportunities for the NDC to gain ground. The outcome of this election could have significant implications for the future political trajectory of Ghana.
In conclusion, the Akwatia by-election is shaping up to be a critical test for both the NPP and the NDC. The poll’s findings highlight the vulnerability of the NPP due to internal disunity and a perceived disconnect with the electorate’s priorities. Conversely, the NDC appears poised to capitalize on these weaknesses by focusing on development and appealing to younger, educated voters. The September 2nd by-election will not only determine the immediate political representation of Akwatia but could also serve as a bellwether for the broader political sentiment in Ghana, foreshadowing potential shifts in power dynamics in the lead-up to future elections. The results will undoubtedly be closely scrutinized by political analysts and strategists across the country, as they offer valuable insights into the evolving political landscape and the factors that influence voter behavior.
