Nigeria’s oil production experienced a downturn in February 2025, falling short of its OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd). The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported an average daily production of 1.47 mbpd, a decrease of 70,000 barrels per day from the 1.54 mbpd achieved in January. This decline represents a significant setback after the country briefly surpassed its OPEC quota in the first month of the year, prompting optimism about achieving the ambitious 2025 budget target of 2.06 mbpd. The February figures reveal a loss of approximately 2.1 million barrels of crude oil for the month, raising concerns about meeting revenue projections and supplying feedstock to local refineries. This fluctuation highlights the challenges Nigeria faces in maintaining stable oil production levels.
The drop in production comes as a disappointment following January’s success, where Nigeria exceeded its quota and garnered praise from industry stakeholders. This initial achievement suggested a renewed commitment to boosting oil output, potentially reaching the government’s target. However, the February data from the NUPRC indicates a reversal of this positive trend. The total oil production, including both crude and condensate, also declined from 1.78 mbpd in January to 1.67 mbpd in February. While the NUPRC report highlighted a peak production of 1.76 mbpd during February, the average daily production remained below the OPEC quota and the January figures. This inconsistent production level underscores the volatility of Nigeria’s oil sector and the need for sustainable solutions.
The historical context reveals a recurring challenge for Nigeria in meeting its OPEC quotas. Throughout 2022, 2023, and 2024, the country consistently fell short of its targets. While the start of 2025 showed promise with a production increase from 1.4 mbpd in December 2024 to 1.5 mbpd in January 2025, the February decline renews concerns about the country’s ability to maintain consistent output. Factors such as crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism have historically hampered Nigeria’s oil production, and these challenges persist. Addressing these issues remains crucial for stabilizing production and achieving long-term growth in the oil sector.
Despite these setbacks, government officials maintain an optimistic outlook. Heineken Lokpobiri, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), expressed confidence in Nigeria’s capacity to reach a production level of 3 mbpd, inclusive of crude and condensates. This target, significantly higher than both the current production and the OPEC quota, reflects the government’s ambition to maximize oil revenues. Lokpobiri’s reference to the “Drill, baby, drill” slogan used by former US President Donald Trump suggests a focus on increased drilling activity to achieve this ambitious goal. However, the feasibility of attaining this level of production remains to be seen, especially given the persistent challenges facing the industry.
Ademola Adeyemi-Bero, Chairman of the Board of Governors of OPEC, echoed this optimism, stating that Nigeria, with its vast hydrocarbon reserves, has the potential to produce significantly more than its current quota. He emphasized the importance of demonstrating the capacity to increase production, viewing the January figures as a positive step in that direction. Adeyemi-Bero suggested that consistent higher production levels would strengthen Nigeria’s position within OPEC and potentially lead to an increased quota. However, the February decline casts doubt on the immediate realization of this potential, highlighting the gap between aspiration and current performance.
The February decline in oil production raises serious concerns about Nigeria’s economic prospects. The 2025 budget is predicated on a production level of 2.06 mbpd, and the shortfall threatens the government’s revenue projections. Furthermore, the drop in production could lead to feedstock shortages for local refineries, impacting domestic fuel supply and potentially increasing reliance on imports. Addressing the underlying causes of production instability, including security issues and infrastructure challenges, is crucial for securing Nigeria’s economic future and achieving its long-term oil production goals. The fluctuating production underscores the urgency of implementing effective strategies to mitigate these recurring challenges and unlock Nigeria’s full oil production potential.
