The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has implemented a new pricing structure for petrol across its retail outlets, marking a notable shift in the nation’s deregulated fuel market. Effective April 2, 2025, the pump price of petrol has been raised to N925 per litre in Lagos and N950 per litre in Abuja. This adjustment represents a N65 increase from the prior price of N860 in Lagos and a N70 increase from N880 in Abuja and the northern regions. The price hike follows closely on the heels of similar increases by independent marketers like MRS, who had already raised their prices to N930 per litre in Lagos and N960 in the North, foreshadowing the NNPCL’s move. This latest price adjustment is attributed to several converging factors, including the recent suspension of naira-denominated petroleum product sales by the Dangote Refinery, fluctuations in global oil prices, and ongoing shifts in market dynamics. It also coincides with a change in leadership at the NNPCL, with President Bola Tinubu appointing Mr. Bayo Ojulari to replace Mele Kyari.
The NNPCL’s price increase has been observed across various retail locations in Lagos and Abuja. In Lagos, stations along major thoroughfares like the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway and Ikorodu Road, as well as those in areas such as Fadeyi, Ago Palace Way, Ogba, and Ikeja, have all updated their pump prices to N925 per litre. While some initial discrepancies were observed, with some stations briefly displaying N930 per litre, the N925 price point has now become the standard. In Abuja, the price adjustment to N950 per litre is evident at stations located along the Kubwa Expressway and in the Wuse district. The rollout of the new pricing may not be perfectly synchronized across all NNPCL stations due to logistical considerations, but the overall trend is clear. The NNPCL’s decision to raise prices marks a departure from the recent period of price competition.
The dynamic nature of Nigeria’s deregulated fuel market is highlighted by the fluctuating petrol prices throughout 2024 and 2025. In March 2025, the NNPCL had lowered its price to N860 per litre in a competitive response to Dangote Refinery’s lower rates. This period of price stability was short-lived, as rising global oil prices, exchange rate volatility, and changes in crude oil sourcing costs exerted upward pressure on fuel prices. The current price increase reflects the NNPCL’s response to these market realities, demonstrating the fluidity of pricing in a deregulated environment. The decision to raise prices reverses a previous downward trend and signals a shift in the NNPCL’s pricing strategy.
The NNPCL’s price adjustment is contextualized within a broader market landscape characterized by fluctuating global oil prices, exchange rate variations, and evolving sourcing costs. The suspension of naira-denominated sales by the Dangote Refinery is a significant contributing factor, potentially disrupting supply chains and influencing market dynamics. This disruption has likely prompted the NNPCL to reassess its pricing strategy in light of shifting supply and demand dynamics. The interplay of these factors has created a complex market environment, compelling fuel retailers to adapt their pricing strategies to maintain profitability and ensure a stable supply of petroleum products.
The implications of the Dangote Refinery’s decision to suspend naira-denominated sales extend beyond the immediate impact on fuel prices. This move raises questions about the refinery’s role in the domestic fuel market and its long-term strategy. The refinery’s entry into the market was initially anticipated to enhance competition and potentially drive down prices. However, the suspension of naira sales suggests a reassessment of the refinery’s approach, potentially influenced by factors such as currency fluctuations and international market conditions. The ramifications of this decision warrant further analysis to understand its full impact on Nigeria’s fuel market.
The NNPCL’s price increase, while influenced by external market factors, also coincides with a significant internal change – the appointment of new leadership. The change in leadership, with Mr. Bayo Ojulari replacing Mele Kyari, adds another layer of complexity to the situation. While it remains to be seen how the new leadership will navigate the challenges of a deregulated market, the timing of the price increase suggests a potential shift in the NNPCL’s overall strategy. The new leadership team will need to address the delicate balance between responding to market pressures and ensuring affordable fuel prices for Nigerian consumers. This will require careful consideration of the interplay between global market forces, domestic economic conditions, and the social implications of fuel price fluctuations.
