A recent pre-election survey conducted by Global InfoAnalytics has indicated a potential victory for the New Patriotic Party (NPP) in the forthcoming Akwatia by-election. The poll suggests that the NPP candidate, Solomon Kwame Asumadu, holds a significant lead not only within the dominant Akan voting bloc but also across other ethnic groups, including the Ga-Adangbe, Ewe, and Mole-Dagbani communities. This cross-ethnic support forms the bedrock of the NPP’s projected victory, presenting a formidable challenge for the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC). However, the pollsters caution that these figures represent current voting intentions and the actual election outcome hinges on voter turnout and whether these preferences hold on election day.
The lead enjoyed by the NPP, according to Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, stems primarily from their strong showing among non-Akan voters. The survey reveals the NPP candidate leading with 51% against the NDC’s 46% among the Ga-Adangbe population. A similar trend emerges among the Ewe community, with the NPP garnering 47% of intended votes compared to the NDC’s 41%. The Mole-Dagbani demographic also leans towards the NPP, with 52% expressing their intention to vote for the NPP candidate versus 48% for the NDC. This diverse support base positions the NPP favorably for retaining the Akwatia seat.
The importance of these cross-ethnic voting patterns is crucial to understanding the dynamics of the by-election. Akwatia, traditionally an NPP stronghold, has a significant Akan population. However, simply securing the Akan vote might not be enough for a decisive victory. The NPP’s appeal beyond its traditional base, particularly among the Ga-Adangbe, Ewe, and Mole-Dagbani communities, provides a critical advantage. Dankwah emphasized that if these trends hold true on election day, the NPP is highly likely to retain the seat. Conversely, a shift in these voting patterns could lead to an upset victory for the NDC.
While the poll results paint a positive picture for the NPP, Dankwah underscores the importance of translating voter intentions into actual votes. He cautioned that a failure to mobilize supporters and ensure high turnout on election day could jeopardize the NPP’s current advantage. The NDC, on the other hand, has an opportunity to capitalize on any potential voter apathy within the NPP’s base or to sway undecided voters in the remaining days leading up to the election. The by-election, therefore, remains a contest with a potentially volatile outcome.
The Akwatia by-election, scheduled for September 2nd, was necessitated by the untimely demise of the incumbent NPP MP, Ernest Yaw Kumi, in July 2025, just months after his election. The by-election therefore carries significant weight, not only as a contest for the parliamentary seat but also as a barometer of public sentiment towards the ruling party. The outcome could be interpreted as a vote of confidence or a sign of shifting political allegiances within the constituency. The stakes are high for both the NPP and the NDC as they seek to consolidate their support and position themselves for future electoral contests.
The Electoral Commission of Ghana has assured the public of its commitment to ensuring a free, fair, and transparent electoral process in Akwatia. Measures have been put in place to prevent irregularities and maintain the integrity of the vote. Additionally, the Inspector-General of Police, Christian Tetteh Yohuno, has issued a stern warning against any attempts to disrupt the peace and security of the election. These pronouncements aim to deter potential troublemakers and reassure voters that their safety and the sanctity of the electoral process are paramount. The by-election will be closely monitored by both domestic and international observers.
