Nigeria’s oil production experienced a significant downturn in August 2025, falling to an average of 1.43 million barrels per day (mbpd). This decline marked a reversal of the positive trend observed in the preceding two months, June and July, when production had surpassed the nation’s OPEC quota of 1.5 mbpd. The August figures represented a substantial drop of 73,000 bpd compared to July’s output of 1.507 mbpd and left Nigeria approximately 66,000 bpd short of its allocated quota. This setback interrupted the momentum built earlier in the year, where production had averaged 1.47 mbpd in the first quarter and 1.48 mbpd in the second quarter. The August decline casts a shadow on the government’s optimism regarding achieving its ambitious production targets.
The fluctuating production levels throughout 2025 paint a picture of inconsistency in Nigeria’s oil sector. While January witnessed the highest output at 1.54 mbpd, exceeding the OPEC quota, subsequent months saw a decline, with production falling to 1.46 mbpd in February and further to 1.40 mbpd in March. A brief recovery in April, reaching 1.48 mbpd, was followed by another dip to 1.45 mbpd in May. The resurgence in June and July, where Nigeria surpassed its OPEC quota, offered a glimmer of hope and fueled expectations of reaching the government’s targeted 2 mbpd. However, the August decline underscored the fragility of these gains and the ongoing challenges facing the industry.
The Nigerian government, under President Bola Tinubu, has embarked on an ambitious drive to revitalize the country’s oil sector and significantly boost production. Initiatives such as the Project One Million Barrels Initiative, launched in 2024, aim to reactivate dormant oil fields, streamline regulatory processes, and enhance operational efficiencies across the upstream value chain. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has highlighted progress in increasing production, claiming an unreconciled daily output averaging between 1.7 and 1.83 mbpd. However, the official OPEC figures for August contradict these claims and raise questions about the accuracy of the reported production increases.
President Tinubu has set ambitious targets for the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), including raising oil production to 2 mbpd by 2027 and 3 mbpd by 2030. Concurrently, gas production targets are set at 8 billion cubic feet daily by 2027 and 10 billion cubic feet by 2030. Furthermore, the NNPC is tasked with increasing its refining capacity to 200,000 barrels per day by 2027 and 500,000 barrels per day by 2030. These ambitious targets reflect the government’s commitment to maximizing the potential of the oil and gas sector and ensuring its contribution to national economic growth.
The NNPC management, under the leadership of Chairman Ahmadu Kida and Group Chief Executive Officer Bayo Ojulari, has initiated measures to optimize operations and achieve the set targets. These include engaging with industry stakeholders, reviewing business relationships, and undertaking turnaround maintenance of refineries. While initial reports suggested positive strides in increasing oil production, reaching 1.7 mbpd in two months from a baseline of 1.5 mbpd, the August figures indicate a significant setback in achieving these goals. The discrepancy between reported production figures and official OPEC data raises concerns and necessitates a thorough assessment of the factors contributing to the fluctuating output levels.
Despite the setbacks, the Nigerian government remains committed to its long-term vision for the oil sector. Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, has expressed confidence in Nigeria’s potential to produce 3 mbpd, highlighting the vast untapped resources and the ongoing efforts to revitalize the industry. While the August decline casts a shadow over the short-term outlook, the government’s long-term objectives remain unchanged, with a focus on increasing production, enhancing refining capacity, and maximizing the contribution of the oil and gas sector to national development. The challenge lies in translating these ambitions into concrete results and addressing the underlying issues that continue to hamper the industry’s growth. Sustained efforts, increased transparency, and effective collaboration between government agencies and industry stakeholders are essential for navigating the challenges and realizing the full potential of Nigeria’s oil and gas resources.
