The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI), a Nigerian think tank, has challenged the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) downward revision of Nigeria’s 2025 economic growth projection from 3.2% to 3.0%. The IMF attributes this downgrade to the anticipated decline in global oil prices, impacting Nigeria’s fiscal and external balances. IMPI contends that this rationale is flawed, arguing that the Nigerian economy is becoming less reliant on oil revenue due to substantial growth in non-oil exports, driven by economic diversification policies and government initiatives. They express greater confidence in the 7% growth projection by Nigeria’s Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, emphasizing the ongoing transformation of the Nigerian economy.
IMPI highlights the contrasting perspective of the World Bank, which projects a more optimistic 3.6% growth for Nigeria in 2025, rising to 3.8% by 2027. The World Bank acknowledges the current administration’s economic reforms and anticipates improved performance in non-oil sectors, particularly services like finance, telecommunications, and information technology. They also foresee easing inflationary pressures and improved business sentiment contributing to this growth. This divergence in projections underscores the inherent uncertainty in economic forecasting and the potential for varying interpretations of economic data.
IMPI points out that discrepancies between IMF projections and actual economic performance are not unusual and cite examples of Mexico and Zambia where the IMF’s forecasts proved inaccurate. In Mexico, the government dismissed the IMF’s prediction of a 0.3% contraction in 2025, citing their own economic models and highlighting public investments and initiatives to boost domestic industry. Similarly, in 2008, the IMF wrongly predicted that Zambia would be severely impacted by falling copper prices during the global financial crisis. These examples illustrate the limitations of economic modeling and the potential for unforeseen factors to influence economic outcomes.
Furthermore, IMPI emphasizes Nigeria’s evolving economic landscape and its increasing resilience to fluctuations in global oil prices. They draw attention to the US Department of State’s commendation of Nigeria’s economic progress and ongoing reforms, further supporting their optimistic outlook. The think tank acknowledges concerns raised by both the IMF and World Bank regarding poverty levels in Nigeria, but argues that the current administration is best positioned to address this issue. They believe that the present economic policies have a greater potential for positive impact compared to previous administrations, even during periods of high oil prices.
IMPI points to historical data showing high poverty rates in Nigeria even during periods of significant oil revenue, highlighting the disconnect between oil wealth and poverty reduction. They argue that the current administration’s focus on economic diversification and non-oil sector growth offers a more sustainable path towards poverty alleviation. They emphasize the importance of evaluating the impact of current policies in the context of Nigeria’s specific economic history and the unique challenges it has faced.
Finally, IMPI draws attention to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s March 2025 economic report, which indicates continued economic expansion, with a composite Purchasing Managers’ Index of 52.3. This data, according to IMPI, further supports their positive outlook and reinforces their belief that the Nigerian economy is on a trajectory of sustained growth, independent of fluctuations in the global oil market. They see this positive trend as an affirmation of the effectiveness of current economic policies and a sign of a more diversified and resilient economy.
