Political Tensions Escalate Amidst Allegations of Anti-Tinubu Coalition

The Nigerian political landscape is buzzing with activity as a coalition against President Bola Tinubu’s potential re-election bid in 2027 begins to take shape. At the forefront of this movement are prominent figures like former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. El-Rufai recently defected from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), citing a divergence in values. He has extended an invitation to other opposition leaders, including Atiku, Peter Obi of the Labour Party, and Rotimi Amaechi, to join him in the SDP, fueling speculation of a broader anti-Tinubu alliance. Atiku himself has been vocal about the necessity of opposition unity, actively working towards a coalition to challenge the APC’s hold on power. This developing coalition also reportedly involves other political heavyweights, such as former APC National Chairman Abdullahi Adamu, ex-Attorney General Abubakar Malami, and former Senate President Ahmed Lawan, creating a complex web of political maneuvering.

The APC has responded swiftly to these developments, characterizing El-Rufai’s actions as driven by personal grievance and a “delusion of grandeur,” attributing his departure to his failure to secure a ministerial appointment. The ruling party maintains that El-Rufai’s claims of ideological misalignment are a mere smokescreen. APC leaders have expressed confidence in Tinubu’s leadership and dismissed the coalition as a futile effort driven by self-interest rather than principle. They emphasize the president’s achievements and ongoing economic reforms, asserting that Tinubu remains “unstoppable.” Despite the APC’s dismissive stance, the potential for this coalition to disrupt the political status quo cannot be entirely ignored.

However, the nascent coalition faces significant internal challenges, particularly regarding leadership and conflicting ambitions. Buba Galadima, a chieftain of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), has criticized the coalition as being built on illegality and lacking public interest. He alleges that El-Rufai is merely a placeholder for Atiku within the SDP and that the NNPP’s presidential candidate, Musa Kwankwaso, declined to join due to concerns about the coalition’s composition and timing. Galadima questions El-Rufai’s credibility and leadership capacity, highlighting his history of political shifts and predicting the coalition’s ultimate failure. Further complicating matters, the SDP itself is reportedly facing internal divisions, with disputes over its leadership structure, potentially hindering the coalition’s ability to establish a stable base.

Adding to the complexity of the situation, Akin Oshuntokun, a former campaign director for Peter Obi, has raised concerns about the viability of the coalition due to the presidential aspirations of key figures like Obi and Atiku. He argues that their individual ambitions could fracture the opposition, leading to a repeat of the 2023 election scenario. Oshuntokun suggests that for the opposition to succeed, Obi might need to reconsider his presidential aspirations and focus on building a robust political movement instead. He acknowledges the difficulty of uniting opposition forces, particularly given the strong support Obi enjoys from the youth and Atiku’s influence within the Northern political establishment. The success of the coalition hinges on the willingness of these key players to prioritize a united front over personal ambitions.

Meanwhile, some members of the potential coalition are proceeding cautiously. Salihu Lukman, a close ally of El-Rufai and a key strategist in the coalition efforts, has indicated that discussions with the SDP are ongoing. He emphasizes the need for a genuine alternative party to promote political competition and address the predictability of the current political landscape. Lukman expresses concerns about El-Rufai’s hasty defection to the SDP and stresses the importance of thorough consultations before formalizing any alliances. He highlights the dissatisfaction among Nigerians with the perceived lack of dynamism in the political system, where outcomes often appear predetermined. This suggests that the coalition’s success may depend on its ability to present a convincing alternative to the existing power structures.

The emerging coalition faces a multitude of hurdles, both internal and external. The APC’s dismissive stance, coupled with the internal divisions within the SDP and the conflicting ambitions of key opposition figures, casts doubt on its long-term viability. The success of this anti-Tinubu alliance hinges on several factors: the ability to overcome internal disagreements and present a united front, the willingness of key figures like Obi and Atiku to prioritize collective goals over personal ambitions, and the capacity to resonate with the electorate by offering a compelling alternative vision for Nigeria’s future. The political landscape remains dynamic, and the unfolding events will undoubtedly shape the course of the 2027 elections.