The Looming Succession Battles: A Look at 10 Nigerian States
Across ten Nigerian states, the winds of political succession are stirring as governors approach the end of their constitutionally mandated final terms. This impending power vacuum has ignited a flurry of activity, from behind-the-scenes maneuvering to overt declarations of intent, as aspirants position themselves for the gubernatorial races of 2027. The states of Oyo, Gombe, Bauchi, Lagos, Ogun, Borno, Nasarawa, Kwara, Yobe, and Adamawa are all preparing for a change in leadership, setting the stage for intense political contests in the coming years. With a mix of both APC and PDP governors, these states represent a microcosm of the national political landscape, reflecting the ongoing power struggle between the two dominant parties.
Lagos: Tinubu’s Influence and a Crowd of Contenders
In Lagos, the political epicenter of Nigeria, the succession battle is particularly complex, with President Bola Tinubu, a former governor of the state, wielding significant influence. While Tinubu has yet to publicly endorse a candidate, several prominent figures have emerged as potential successors. These include Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat, former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode, Senator Mukhail Adetokunbo Abiru, Chief of Staff Femi Gbajabiamila, Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly Mudashiru Obasa, and even the President’s son, Seyi Tinubu. Speculation also points to Muri Okunola, the current Principal Secretary to the President. However, some political insiders suggest that Tinubu may opt for a less predictable choice, a tactic he has employed in the past. Meanwhile, opposition parties, including the PDP and Labour Party, are gearing up to challenge the APC’s long-standing dominance in the state.
Nasarawa and Ogun: A Multitude of Aspirants Emerge
Nasarawa State presents a crowded field, with over 20 individuals expressing interest in the governorship. This includes prominent figures such as former Minister Muhammad-Hassan Abdullahi, former governorship candidate David Ombugadu, Senator Aliyu Wadada, and the state’s Accountant General, Dr. Musa Mohammed. The race is further complicated by the ongoing debate over zoning, an unofficial practice of rotating political offices among different regions. In Ogun State, the race is shaping up as a contest between established political figures and those with ties to President Tinubu. Senator Olamilekan Adeola, known as Yayi, is considered a frontrunner due to his close relationship with the President. Other contenders include Gboyega Isiaka, a three-time governorship candidate; Ambassador Sarafadeen Ishola; Coordinating Minister of Economy Wale Edun; and Minister of Communication Bosun Tijani. The PDP’s Oladipupo Adebutu, who lost the 2023 election to the incumbent governor, is also expected to contend for the seat.
Kwara: Saraki’s PDP Comeback Bid
Kwara State is witnessing a resurgence of the PDP, led by former Senate President Bukola Saraki. With Governor AbdulRaman AbdulRazaq of the APC away on pilgrimage, Saraki has seized the opportunity to revitalize the opposition party, spearheading membership drives and solidifying his base. Saraki has emphasized his commitment to a level playing field for all aspirants, even as Ladi Hassan has publicly declared his intention to run on the PDP platform. Other potential PDP candidates include Prof. Ali Ahmad. Within the APC, Speaker Yakubu Danladi is rumored to be the Governor’s preferred successor, though several others are vying for the position, including Senator Sadiq Umar, Prof. Abubakar Suleiman, Ambassador Yahaya Seriki, and Senator Saliu Mustapha.
Gombe and Borno: Waiting for the Incumbent’s Cue
In Gombe State, Governor Muhammed Yahaya has yet to signal his preference for a successor, although several names are circulating within the APC, including Finance Commissioner Gambo Magaji, Transportation Minister Saidu Alkali, and former Digital Economy Minister Prof. Ali Pantami. On the PDP side, Jibrin Barde, the party’s 2023 candidate, and recent defector Ahmed Mailantarki are potential contenders. Borno State presents a different scenario, with Governor Babagana Zulum enjoying widespread popularity and considerable influence over the succession process. Speculation suggests that Zulum’s chosen candidate, possibly one of the state’s senators, is likely to secure the governorship, highlighting the governor’s firm grip on the state’s political landscape. No clear opposition candidate has emerged.
Oyo: Internal Strife and Potential Defections
The PDP in Oyo State is facing internal turmoil, with several prominent members reportedly planning to defect to the African Democratic Congress (ADC). This internal strife stems from dissatisfaction over power distribution and appointments within the party, leading to feelings of marginalization among some key stakeholders. The potential exodus of these members, along with their substantial support bases, poses a significant threat to the PDP’s future prospects in the state. The situation highlights the fragility of party structures and the importance of internal cohesion in maintaining political viability. As the 2027 elections draw closer, the political landscape in these ten states will continue to evolve, with alliances shifting, new contenders emerging, and the stakes growing ever higher. The struggle for succession is not merely a contest for individual power but a reflection of the broader dynamics shaping Nigerian politics, where power, influence, and popular support are constantly being negotiated and redefined.
