The Nigerian agricultural sector is facing a potential crisis of escalating food prices projected for mid-2025, following a significant surge in food imports in 2024. The value of these imports skyrocketed by 51.06 percent, reaching N3.78 trillion, compared to N1.85 trillion in 2023. This sharp increase is largely attributed to the Federal Government’s 150-day duty-free import window implemented in July 2024, a measure intended to curb exorbitant food prices by flooding the market with imported goods. This policy, however, faced opposition from stakeholders, including farmers and private sector members, who questioned its long-term sustainability. It’s worth noting that prior to this waiver, government policy generally restricted food imports, and the value of such imports had actually decreased slightly in 2023 compared to 2022.
Despite the temporary respite offered by the import waiver, concerns remain about the long-term implications of this approach. While the policy did contribute to a reported 37.65 percent increase in food prices in 2024, subsequent market surveys indicated a decline, offering a temporary reprieve to consumers. However, stakeholders warn that this price reduction is unsustainable and predict a resurgence in food prices by mid-2025, once imported and locally harvested stocks dwindle. This cyclical pattern highlights the inherent vulnerability of relying on imports to address food security challenges.
Kabir Ibrahim, President of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), acknowledges the short-term success of the import waiver in lowering prices but emphasizes the unsustainable nature of relying on imports for a nation with Nigeria’s rapidly growing population. He stresses the imperative for Nigeria to achieve self-sufficiency in food production, arguing that a nation projected to reach 400 million people within 25 years cannot afford to rely on external sources for its food security. Ibrahim also points to the continued challenges faced by local farmers, including high input costs for fertilizers and labor, coupled with unfavorable competition from imported food, as further justification for prioritizing domestic production. These factors discourage farmers from investing in production, setting the stage for future scarcity and price hikes.
The predicted resurgence of high food prices may arrive sooner than anticipated, as the initial price drop following the import influx has begun to reverse. Tunde Banjoko, Chairman of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry Agriculture and Allied Group, confirms the upward trend in prices for staples like rice, garri, and beans, highlighting the limitations of the temporary price relief. He emphasizes the critical need for investment in storage infrastructure to address the cyclical price fluctuations driven by seasonal harvests. The current system, characterized by farmers flooding the market with produce during harvest season, leading to price crashes followed by subsequent price hikes, underscores the fragility of the agricultural sector.
Banjoko advocates for moving beyond seasonal farming practices and echoes Ibrahim’s call for government support to bolster domestic production. He emphasizes the importance of accessible financing for farmers, advocating for single-digit interest rates through the Bank of Agriculture rather than the exorbitant rates offered by commercial lenders. Furthermore, he suggests the establishment of commodity boards by state and local governments to ensure guaranteed prices for farmers, thereby mitigating the risks associated with production and encouraging investment in the agricultural sector.
The Federal Government, through the Presidential Food Systems Coordinating Unit (PFSCU), acknowledges the complexity of the food security challenge. Marion Moon, Assistant to the President on Agriculture and Executive Secretary of the PFSCU, explains the government’s multi-pronged approach focusing on food availability, accessibility, and utilization. While the temporary import waiver addressed the immediate issue of accessibility by making food more affordable in the short term, Moon emphasizes that this was a temporary measure designed to address a specific challenge while longer-term solutions are developed. The government recognizes the need for a balanced approach, working in collaboration with both the public and private sectors to ensure food stability and ultimately build a resilient and sustainable agricultural sector.
