The Shifting Sands of Kaduna Politics: A Mass Exodus and its Implications
The political scene in Kaduna South has undergone a dramatic transformation with a mass exodus of politicians from the Labour Party (LP) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC). This realignment has sparked speculation about the future political trajectory of the region. Hundreds of prominent figures, including former senator Danjuma Laar, Godfrey Ali Gaiya, Ado Dogo Audu, and several representatives and state legislators, have switched allegiances. The APC’s perceived national strength and the perceived advantages of belonging to the ruling party are cited as primary motivations behind these defections. Analysts suggest that these political maneuvers are driven by pragmatism and the desire to access resources and influence policy. Governor Uba Sani, welcoming the new members, attributes the APC’s growing popularity to his administration’s commitment to justice and fairness, promising equal treatment for all members regardless of their history with the party. He expresses confidence in the APC’s victory in the 2027 elections, from the presidential race down to state and local levels.
Skepticism and Criticism of the Mass Defections
However, the mass defections haven’t been without their critics. Concerns have been raised that such large-scale party-switching undermines the democratic process, erodes public trust, and creates an uneven playing field. Some view these moves as opportunistic rather than principled, motivated by personal gain rather than genuine commitment to the party’s ideology. The PDP chairman, Edward Masha, alleges that some defectors had actively worked against the party in the 2023 elections and dismisses their departure as inconsequential. He highlights the PDP’s strong grassroots base and questions the defectors’ ability to win elections without the party’s support. Senator Lawal Adamu Usman, representing Kaduna Central, criticizes the defectors as “political liabilities” and mocks the APC rally as a staged event, pointing out the party’s inability to hold local elections.
National Figures Weigh In on the Defections
Former Sokoto State Governor and Senator Aminu Tambuwal echoes these criticisms, attributing the defections to "stomach infrastructure" rather than genuine concern for the people. He argues that the APC’s policies and economic performance offer no legitimate attraction and questions the conscience of those joining the ruling party. Tambuwal urges a united front against the APC in the 2027 elections. The APC, however, remains unfazed by the criticism, viewing the influx of new members as a testament to its growing popularity and commitment to good governance. The party dismisses skeptics as political non-starters attempting to undermine its success.
The El-Rufai Factor and the APC’s Response
The defection of former Governor Nasir El-Rufai and some of his associates to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) adds another layer of complexity to the Kaduna political landscape. The APC downplays the significance of El-Rufai’s move, portraying it as a self-serving attempt to exact revenge and predicting his disruptive influence within the SDP. Former Senator Shehu Sani concurs, asserting that El-Rufai’s political relevance has diminished and his defection will have little impact. He, however, expresses confidence in the reelection of both President Tinubu and Governor Sani. The APC reiterates its focus on delivering electoral victories for Tinubu and Sani in 2027, dismissing El-Rufai’s departure as inconsequential.
Southern Kaduna: A Shift in Allegiances?
The shifting political sands in Kaduna South, traditionally a PDP stronghold, appear to reflect a growing acceptance of the APC within the region. Some voices in Southern Kaduna acknowledge the inclusivity shown by both the Tinubu and Sani administrations, citing appointments and development initiatives as positive signs. Luka Binniyat, a prominent Southern Kaduna voice, notes a perceived improvement in relations with the current administration compared to the El-Rufai era. He acknowledges a decrease in community violence and a more tolerant approach from Governor Sani.
Cautious Optimism and Open Options
The Southern Kaduna Peoples Union (SOKAPU) also acknowledges President Tinubu’s efforts towards inclusivity, citing specific appointments and the establishment of a federal university in the region. However, while appreciating these gestures, SOKAPU remains non-committal regarding the 2027 elections, stating its willingness to partner with any entity that supports its development goals. This cautious optimism suggests that while the APC has made inroads in Southern Kaduna, the region’s long-term political allegiance remains fluid.
The Future of Kaduna South Politics
The APC’s strengthened position in Kaduna South undoubtedly has implications for future policy decisions and resource allocation. Increased investment and development are potential benefits, but concerns about potential corruption and lack of accountability persist. Critics emphasize the importance of robust checks and balances to prevent abuses of power. Governor Sani’s reliance on defectors presents both opportunities and challenges. While the influx of new members strengthens his political base, it also risks alienating his core supporters and creating internal divisions. The governor faces the delicate task of consolidating his position while maintaining the trust of his diverse constituency.
Conclusion: A Dynamic Political Landscape
The dramatic shifts in Kaduna South’s political landscape have created a dynamic and unpredictable environment. The long-term consequences of the mass defections remain to be seen. While the APC appears to have gained significant ground, the region’s political future remains uncertain, with numerous factors at play. The people of Kaduna South are closely observing these developments, awaiting the next chapter in this evolving political drama.
