Umar Ardo, a prominent political strategist and former governorship candidate, posits that unseating President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 general elections is a feasible objective, contingent on the opposition’s ability to coalesce under a newly formed political party. Ardo, speaking on Arise Television, articulated his belief in the potential of a united opposition front, while acknowledging the existing ideological fissures within the current coalition spearheaded by Atiku Abubakar and Nasir El-Rufai. He firmly dismissed the notion of merging with an established party, advocating instead for the creation of a fresh political platform, which he believes would present a more compelling and credible alternative to the electorate.
Central to Ardo’s argument is the conviction that a united opposition, operating under a new banner, stands a significant chance of defeating Tinubu in 2027. He revealed that the existing coalition had explored two distinct paths – merging with an existing party or forming a new one – and concluded that the former lacked the necessary strength and appeal. Two committees were formed to assess these options, and their reports, according to Ardo, strongly favored the creation of a new party. He emphasized that the coalition’s success is inextricably linked to the adoption of a sound strategy, expressing confidence in the achievability of victory with the right approach.
Addressing recent internal disagreements within the coalition, particularly involving delegates from Jigawa, Ardo downplayed their significance, characterizing them as predictable friction in the nascent stages of any political alliance. He attributed the divisions primarily to ideological differences, revolving around the fundamental question of whether to integrate into an existing party or forge a new path. While acknowledging that a segment of the coalition, including some leaders, leaned towards merging with an existing entity, Ardo reiterated his group’s (the League of Northern Democrats) firm belief in the efficacy of establishing a new political force. He assured that despite these strategic divergences, the coalition remains intact and committed to its overarching goal.
Ardo’s analysis extended to President Tinubu’s 2023 electoral victory, which he characterized as a triumph achieved with the support of less than 38% of registered voters. This statistic, in his view, highlighted a significant disconnect between the elected government and the majority of the electorate, suggesting that a substantial portion of Nigerians either abstained from voting or felt unrepresented by the available choices. The impressive number of over 90 million registered voters, he argued, underscored a latent desire for political participation, which a revitalized and united opposition could effectively harness.
A key challenge facing any new political entity, according to Ardo, is the substantial financial burden of establishing and maintaining party structures. He acknowledged that this often poses a significant barrier to entry for emerging political forces. However, he contended that a new party, fortified by the combined resources and support of a broad coalition, could overcome this financial hurdle and effectively mobilize widespread support across the nation. This, he believes, is the key to successfully challenging the incumbent power structure and offering a viable alternative to the Nigerian electorate.
In essence, Ardo’s perspective centers on the idea that a fractured opposition, spread across multiple platforms, stands little chance against the incumbent. Only a unified front, presenting a clear and cohesive alternative under a fresh banner, can effectively mobilize the significant portion of the electorate that feels disenfranchised or unrepresented. He believes that by overcoming internal ideological differences and addressing the financial challenges of building a new party, the opposition can capitalize on the existing political climate and present a formidable challenge to President Tinubu in the 2027 elections. The success of this endeavor, however, hinges on the coalition’s ability to solidify its unity, strategize effectively, and resonate with the aspirations of the Nigerian people.
