President Bola Tinubu’s Democracy Day address painted a picture of Nigeria’s journey towards food sovereignty and economic revitalization. He emphasized the administration’s “Nigeria First” policy as a driving force behind market-driven growth and improved economic performance. Tinubu highlighted the importance of domestic food production and expressed confidence in the nation’s trajectory towards achieving food security. He attributed the positive economic indicators to the soundness of the government’s policy measures and emphasized the focus on achieving a sustained 7% economic growth rate with a robust manufacturing sector.
However, this optimistic outlook contrasts sharply with the World Bank’s recent report on food security in Africa. The report identifies Nigeria as the leading cereal importer in Sub-Saharan Africa, registering a substantial $2 billion net cereal deficit in 2023. Despite being the second-largest cereal producer in the region, Nigeria’s growing population and increasing industrial demand have necessitated a reliance on imports. This discrepancy between the president’s assertion of progress towards food sovereignty and the World Bank’s findings raises crucial questions about the effectiveness of current policies and the long-term sustainability of Nigeria’s food system.
The president’s speech emphasized the administration’s commitment to strengthening the economy’s productive capacity through strategic investments in infrastructure. Tinubu outlined plans to enhance road networks, expand port operations, improve rail infrastructure, and bolster power generation, aiming to create a conducive environment for industrial growth and manufacturing. These infrastructural developments, according to the president, are crucial for facilitating economic diversification and boosting domestic production. He believes that a robust infrastructure is essential for attracting investments, reducing production costs, and enhancing the competitiveness of Nigerian businesses.
Tinubu also addressed the need for fiscal policy reforms to streamline tax administration and eliminate burdensome and multiple taxes. He believes that these reforms will create a more favorable business environment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, encouraging investment and fostering economic growth. By simplifying the tax system and reducing the tax burden on businesses, the administration aims to stimulate private sector activity and create employment opportunities.
The president presented a positive assessment of the current economic situation, citing several indicators of progress. He pointed to a 3.4% GDP growth in 2024, with the fourth quarter reaching 4.6%, the highest quarterly growth in over a decade. He also highlighted a decline in inflation, attributing it to stabilized prices of staple foods like rice and beans. The president further noted a fivefold increase in net foreign reserves, stabilization of the naira exchange rate, a positive balance of payments position, and improvements in sovereign credit rating. These positive indicators, according to Tinubu, are a testament to the effectiveness of the government’s economic policies and indicate a trajectory towards sustained growth and stability.
Despite the president’s optimistic pronouncements, the World Bank report raises concerns about the long-term sustainability of Nigeria’s food security. The report highlights the need for significant improvements in agricultural productivity, efficient supply chain management, and infrastructure development to reduce dependence on imports and achieve true food sovereignty. Reconciling the president’s optimistic outlook with the World Bank’s assessment requires a comprehensive analysis of the underlying factors driving food insecurity, a critical evaluation of the effectiveness of existing policies, and the formulation of a long-term strategy to address the challenges and achieve sustainable food security for Nigeria. The discrepancy between the two perspectives underscores the need for a transparent and data-driven assessment of the current situation and a realistic approach to achieving the stated goals of food sovereignty and economic prosperity.
