The Nigerian-US trade relationship experienced a significant downturn in July 2025, with US imports of Nigerian goods plummeting by 41% to $379 million, down from $639 million in June. This dramatic decline coincided with a decrease in US exports to Nigeria, falling from $919 million to $584 million. While the US maintained a trade surplus with Nigeria, the sharp contraction in Nigerian exports signals a weakening of Nigeria’s traditionally advantageous trade position with the US and raises concerns about its access to the American market. This development unfolds against a backdrop of evolving US trade policies and a complex African trade landscape.
The broader context of US-Africa trade reveals a more nuanced picture. While US imports from Africa as a whole increased in July, reaching $4.47 billion, exports from the US dipped slightly. This dynamic resulted in a widening US trade deficit with Africa, reaching $1.17 billion in July. Examining individual countries reveals further complexities. While the US maintains a trade surplus with Egypt, its deficit with South Africa has deepened considerably, reaching $7.74 billion year-to-date. This pattern of diverging trade balances underscores the varied nature of US trade relationships across the African continent.
The decline in Nigerian exports is attributed, in part, to recent US trade measures. President Trump’s executive order, which increased tariffs on certain Nigerian goods to 15%, has created uncertainty and dampened US demand, especially for non-oil products now subject to higher duties. While crude oil, Nigeria’s primary export, has been largely exempt from these tariff increases, the broader impact on market sentiment and investor confidence has likely contributed to the decline in overall exports. This action reflects a broader trend in US trade policy aimed at protecting domestic industries and addressing trade imbalances.
Nigeria’s response to these developments emphasizes resilience and diversification. Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, affirmed Nigeria’s commitment to its reform agenda and its focus on expanding market access for Nigerian businesses rather than engaging in retaliatory measures. This strategy involves strengthening Nigeria’s engagement with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), promoting non-oil exports, and forging stronger trade partnerships with countries beyond the US, including Brazil, China, Japan, and the UAE. This approach reflects a long-term vision of reducing dependence on the American market and fostering more balanced and diversified trade relationships.
Economic experts within Nigeria offer varied perspectives on the implications of the US tariff hikes and the evolving trade landscape. Dr. Aliyu Ilias of CSA Advisory views the situation as an opportunity for Nigeria to adapt and strengthen its position within BRICS and other international alliances. This perspective highlights the potential for Nigeria to leverage its global partnerships to mitigate the negative impacts of US trade policies and build greater economic resilience. Meanwhile, Dr. Muda Yusuf of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise downplays the overall impact of the US tariffs, arguing that Nigeria’s trade exposure to the US is limited and that the bigger challenge lies in US visa policies hindering business interactions and investment flows.
The decline in Nigerian exports to the US, while concerning, serves as a catalyst for accelerating diversification efforts. Nigeria’s focus on strengthening its presence within AfCFTA, promoting non-oil exports, and expanding trade partnerships with countries in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America reflects a proactive strategy to reduce its reliance on the US market and build a more resilient and diversified economy. While the immediate challenges posed by the US trade measures are significant, Nigerian policymakers and economists express confidence in the country’s ability to navigate this changing landscape and emerge stronger in the long term. The current situation underscores the vulnerability of relying heavily on energy exports and a single market while simultaneously presenting an opportunity to reshape Nigeria’s trade relationships for a more sustainable and prosperous future.
