Nigeria’s fuel supply chain is experiencing a complex interplay of domestic refining capacity, ongoing importation of refined products, and fluctuating market prices. Seven vessels carrying a total of 115,000 metric tonnes, equivalent to approximately 154.22 million litres, of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, are scheduled to arrive at Nigerian ports between March 17 and 23, 2025. This influx of imported fuel is aimed at bolstering national supply and potentially mitigating rising fuel costs. The vessels are slated to discharge their cargo at three ports: Tincan and Lekki Deep Seaports in Lagos, and Calabar Port in Cross River State. This reliance on imports comes despite the presence of the Dangote Refinery, which is simultaneously importing substantial amounts of crude oil, 654,766 metric tonnes during the same period, for its own refining operations.
The arrival of these imported fuel shipments unfolds against a backdrop of controversy surrounding the Dangote Refinery’s role in the domestic fuel market. The refinery recently suspended its sales of petroleum products in naira, a move prompted by a breakdown in negotiations over the naira-for-crude deal with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC). Domestic refiners allege that the suspension of the naira-based crude supply is a deliberate attempt to undermine the Dangote Refinery and perpetuate the cycle of dependence on imported refined petroleum products. This accusation underscores the tension between promoting domestic refining capacity and maintaining existing import structures.
Eche Idoko, the National Publicity Secretary of the Crude Oil Refinery-owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN), argues that the suspension of the naira-for-crude deal undermines national efforts towards energy security. He suggests that certain stakeholders, uncomfortable with the Dangote Refinery’s downward pressure on petrol prices, are advocating for increased imports to preserve existing market dynamics. This dynamic highlights the delicate balance between supporting local refining and managing price stability within the fuel market.
The continued reliance on imported petrol raises questions about the effectiveness of efforts to boost domestic refining capacity. The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) recently reported that the country’s three operational refineries contribute less than half of the daily petrol consumption, necessitating significant imports to meet national demand. This gap between domestic production and consumption underscores the need for increased investment in refining infrastructure and a more robust domestic refining sector.
The scheduled arrival of the seven petrol-laden vessels provides a detailed snapshot of the ongoing import operations. The first vessel, carrying 20,000 metric tonnes of PMS, docked at the Dangote terminal on March 17, coinciding with the arrival of two other vessels, each carrying 20,000 metric tonnes, at the Tincan and Calabar ports. Subsequent arrivals throughout the week include a 20,000-metric-tonne vessel at the Ecomarine terminal, a 5,000-metric-tonne vessel at the Tincan port, and two more vessels, carrying 15,000 metric tonnes each, at the Calabar port. This staggered arrival schedule demonstrates the logistical complexities involved in coordinating fuel imports.
While these imports aim to address fuel supply concerns, the issue of rising prices at loading depots persists. Depot owners have continued to increase the loading cost of petrol and other refined petroleum products. For instance, Rainoil Depot and MEN depot raised their prices to N860 per litre, while Pinnacle Depot followed suit with a similar increase. Aiteo and Nipco also adjusted their prices upwards to N856 and N860 per litre, respectively. These price increases at the depot level are likely to translate to higher pump prices for consumers, potentially offsetting any benefits from increased fuel availability. This complex situation highlights the challenges facing Nigeria’s fuel market, where balancing import dependence with domestic refining capacity remains a critical and ongoing concern.
