Babachir Lawal, the former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, has issued a stark warning to President Bola Tinubu: appease the North or face potential defeat in the 2027 presidential election. This warning comes amidst growing discontent in the northern region, fueled by Tinubu’s economic reforms, which have been perceived as causing widespread hardship. Lawal argues that unless the President actively addresses the suffering and listens to the concerns of the people, particularly in the North, he risks losing their support in the next election cycle. This represents a significant shift in political dynamics, as the North has traditionally been a crucial voting bloc in Nigerian presidential elections.
The discontent in the North has been brewing for some time, with prominent figures like Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed, the Arewa Consultative Forum, and other northern chieftains voicing their concerns. These concerns were further exacerbated by recent comments from the National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Abdullahi Ganduje, who suggested that northern politicians should abandon any presidential ambitions for 2027. This statement was interpreted by many as an attempt to suppress dissent and consolidate power around the current administration, further fueling the growing tension within the ruling party and the wider northern political landscape.
Lawal, once an ally of Tinubu, has become a vocal critic, accusing the President of inflicting suffering on the North through his policies. He contends that Tinubu’s administration is not only causing economic hardship but also stifling dissent by targeting those who speak out against the government. Lawal alleges that critics are being intimidated and even arrested, creating an atmosphere of fear and suppressing legitimate concerns. This alleged crackdown on dissent has further alienated some segments of the northern population, adding another layer of complexity to the already tense political climate.
The former SGF drew a parallel between Tinubu’s current situation and the experience of former President Goodluck Jonathan, who lost his re-election bid in 2015. Lawal suggests that Tinubu risks suffering a similar fate if he fails to address the grievances of the North. He recalls how Jonathan, despite significant campaign spending, lost the support of the northern electorate, who ultimately voted against him. Lawal believes that Tinubu’s reliance on financial inducements to secure votes will not be effective in the North, as the electorate is deeply disillusioned with the current economic realities.
Lawal argues that the North’s collective decision on voting patterns is often unshakeable, regardless of financial incentives or political maneuvering. He emphasizes the importance of genuine engagement and policy adjustments to win back the trust and support of the northern population. Lawal’s warning highlights the crucial role of the North in Nigerian politics and the potential consequences for any leader who fails to address their concerns. The comparison to Goodluck Jonathan’s defeat serves as a cautionary tale, underscoring the power of the northern vote and the potential for a similar outcome if Tinubu doesn’t change course.
The growing dissent in the North poses a significant challenge to President Tinubu’s political future. Unless he takes decisive steps to address the economic hardships and the perceived suppression of dissent, he risks alienating a crucial voting bloc and jeopardizing his chances of re-election in 2027. The discontent in the North is not merely about economic policy but also about the perceived lack of respect for dissenting voices and the feeling of being ignored by the central government. The warning from Babachir Lawal serves as a wake-up call, highlighting the urgent need for President Tinubu to engage with the concerns of the North and rebuild trust with the people of the region.
