The recent report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicating a drop in Nigeria’s unemployment rate to 4.3 percent in the second quarter of 2024 has sparked significant controversy, especially from organizations like the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) and the Organised Private Sector (OPS). The NLC expressed skepticism, characterizing the report as a “fiction” that fails to represent the harsh realities facing Nigerians. This skepticism stems from the contrast between NBS’s optimistic unemployment figures and the prevailing economic conditions marked by factory closures, stagnant manufacturing growth, and rising inventories. While the NBS claims a gradual recovery with improved labour metrics, the NLC claims the figures are misleading.
The NBS’s report highlighted improvements in various labour market indicators: a rise in the Labour Force Participation Rate to 79.5 percent and the Employment-to-Population Ratio climbing to 76.1 percent. However, self-employment continued to dominate total employment at 85.6 percent, revealing a reliance on informal jobs. Data showed urban unemployment slightly reduced to 5.2 percent while rural unemployment stood even lower at 2.8 percent, indicating disparities in employment opportunities between urban and rural areas. Youth unemployment significantly declined from 8.4 percent to 6.5 percent; however, gender discrepancies persisted with women facing higher unemployment at 5.1 percent compared to men at 3.4 percent.
The criticisms from the NLC were echoed by other economic experts, including Gabriel Idahosa, President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, who labeled the 4.3 percent figure a “technical improvement” not reflective of the economic climate. Dr. Muda Yusuf from the Centre for Promotion of Private Enterprise shared similar views, suggesting that the methodology employed by the NBS is outdated since it fails to account for the nuances of Nigeria’s actual economic landscape. Consumers’ resistance and economic hardships for employers have raised concerns over the reliability of NBS figures, with many arguing that the real job market is deteriorating despite the reported statistics.
Furthermore, economies heavily reliant on informal and subsistence work create concerns about job quality and real income levels for the workforce. Dr. Femi Egbesola, President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, pointed out that recent structural changes may have contributed to a misleading reduction in unemployment figures. He postulated that the reclassification of employment metrics, particularly low-quality, part-time, or gig employment, diluted the meaning of “employment” as reported. The problem lies not only in quantifying employment but also in assessing the impact that these jobs have on individuals’ livelihood stability.
Amidst this confusion, underlying economic measures continue to indicate struggles. Certain sectors, such as agriculture and manufacturing, exhibited low GDP growth rates, raising questions about where new jobs are truly originating. Many in the economic community urged for a reevaluation of prevailing methodologies to address discrepancies between reported statistics and lived experiences. The focus should shift from merely presenting favorable employment figures, to constructing a more accurate representation of workplace realities – including income distribution, underemployment, and quality of jobs.
In conclusion, Nigeria’s unemployment rate report highlights a critical debate over economic measurement and reality in a country grappling with significant economic challenges. While the NBS touts a decline in unemployment as a sign of improvement, skepticism from influential economic leaders and practitioners calls for an overhaul of methodologies used in measuring employment. Poverty levels and job satisfaction remain crucial indicators of economic health that need to be addressed to create a true picture of the workforce dilemma in Nigeria as stakeholders discuss actionable strategies to enhance real job creation in the face of current economic adversities.
