Nigeria’s Oil Production Goals Face Setbacks Amid Fluctuating Output
Nigeria’s aspirations to significantly boost its oil production have encountered a series of hurdles, with output fluctuating considerably over recent months. Despite efforts by the Federal Government to ramp up production to over two million barrels per day, the latest figures from May 2025 reveal a decline, casting doubt on the nation’s ability to achieve its ambitious targets. The reported daily production for May stood at 1.65 million barrels per day (mbpd), a decrease from 1.68 mbpd in April. This downturn follows a brief period of growth in April, when production rose to 1.48 mbpd from 1.40 mbpd in March, offering a glimmer of hope for reaching the desired 2.1 mbpd target. However, the subsequent decline in May has dampened this optimism.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) provided a detailed breakdown of the May production figures, indicating a combined crude oil and condensate production ranging between 1.61 mbpd and 1.81 mbpd. The daily average production for the month was calculated at 1.657 mbpd, comprising 1.45 mbpd of crude oil and 0.20 mbpd of condensate. Notably, the average crude oil production represented 97% of Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 mbpd. This consistent struggle to meet the OPEC quota underscores the challenges confronting the Nigerian oil sector.
The newly appointed board of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), under the leadership of Chairman Ahmadu Kida and Group Chief Executive Officer Bayo Ojulari, has been tasked with the formidable challenge of increasing oil production to 2 mbpd by 2027 and further to 3 mbpd by 2030. These ambitious targets are accompanied by parallel goals for gas production, aiming for 8 billion cubic feet daily by 2027 and 10 billion cubic feet daily by 2030. Furthermore, the board is expected to substantially increase NNPC’s refining capacity, targeting 200,000 barrels per day by 2027 and 500,000 barrels per day by 2030. These objectives reflect a comprehensive strategy to revitalize the Nigerian oil and gas sector.
Upon assuming their roles, the new NNPC leadership engaged with industry stakeholders to assess operations and business relationships. Initial efforts focused on optimizing various aspects of the company’s operations, including refinery turnaround maintenance. Early reports indicated an increase in oil production to 1.7 mbpd within two months, up from 1.5 mbpd, with the aim of reaching 1.9 mbpd by the end of 2025. While this initial progress offered a positive outlook, the subsequent decline in May highlights the ongoing volatility in production levels.
Optimistic projections from government officials, including Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, suggested the possibility of Nigeria achieving a daily production of 3 mbpd. This optimism stemmed from positive developments in January 2025, when Nigeria’s average daily crude output reached 1.538 mbpd, surpassing the OPEC quota of 1.5 mbpd by approximately 39,000 barrels. This achievement, however, proved short-lived, as subsequent months witnessed fluctuating production levels.
Despite the January surge, Nigeria’s historical performance reveals a persistent struggle to consistently meet its OPEC quota throughout 2022, 2023, and 2024. The beginning of 2025 initially held promise, with production rising from 1.4 mbpd in December 2024 to 1.5 mbpd in January 2025. The NUPRC reported a further increase to 1.74 mbpd in January, including crude and condensate, compared to 1.6 mbpd in December. However, this upward trend was not sustained, as production dipped again in February and has yet to regain the January peak. This pattern of fluctuating output underscores the fragility of Nigeria’s oil production and the challenges in achieving sustained growth.
The recurring fluctuations in Nigeria’s oil production raise concerns about the nation’s ability to meet its ambitious targets. While the initial increase in production following the appointment of the new NNPC board offered a positive sign, the subsequent decline in May highlights the persistent challenges facing the sector. Factors such as oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and operational inefficiencies continue to impede progress. Addressing these issues will be crucial for achieving sustainable growth in oil production and realizing the government’s long-term objectives for the oil and gas sector. The ongoing volatility in production underscores the need for consistent efforts to improve infrastructure, enhance security, and optimize operational efficiency. Achieving the stated targets will require a concerted and sustained effort from all stakeholders in the Nigerian oil industry.
