The global landscape of oil exploration underwent a significant shift in 2024, marked by a surge in discoveries within African nations. A report by S&P Global, titled “High Impact Wells 2025,” reveals that African countries now account for 35% of newly discovered oil reserves, a dramatic increase from a mere 7% in 2023. This upswing positions Africa at the forefront of new crude oil discoveries, even amidst the global push for energy transition, primarily driven by Western nations. Notably, this growth is occurring despite a global decline in newly discovered volumes, reaching its lowest point since the 1950s. The report emphasizes the crucial role of high-impact wells in driving future discoveries and shaping global oil trade flows.
The report highlights the Cote D’Ivoire Basin and the Orange Sub-basin as major contributors to the 8.8 billion barrels of oil equivalent discovered globally in 2024. These two basins alone accounted for 2.9 billion barrels of this total. The Orange Sub-basin, situated in Southwest Africa, emerged as a particularly active exploration hotspot, with significant discoveries made by industry giants like Galp, TotalEnergies, and Shell. Galp’s Mopane 1X discovery, located in shallower waters than previous finds in the region, stands out as the largest global discovery of the year, boasting promising reservoir properties. Eni’s Murene 1X well, resulting in the Calao discovery, marked another significant find in the Cote D’Ivoire Basin, solidifying its position as a prolific area for exploration since the Baleine discovery in 2021.
The S&P Global report underscores the increasing importance of deepwater exploration in the quest for new oil reserves. The Mopane well, for instance, reached a depth of approximately 1,680 meters, while the Murene 1X well in Côte d’Ivoire extended to 2,200 meters. This trend towards deeper exploration, exemplified by the Venus 1X well with its 3,000-meter water depth and Nigeria’s Bonga Oil Field, signifies a shift in industry focus. These deepwater explorations, though inherently high-risk, carry the potential for substantial rewards, making them attractive targets for companies seeking to replenish their reserves.
Looking ahead to 2025, the report projects continued exploration activity in key areas like the Southwest African Coastal Basin (specifically the Orange Sub-basin), the Central Arabian Province, and the Guyana Basin. These regions are expected to remain significant players in the exploration landscape, offering promising opportunities for uncovering further untapped resources. The report anticipates that more than 35 high-impact wells will be drilled globally in 2025, targeting both immature and frontier basins, as well as more mature provinces. This sustained exploration activity reflects the industry’s ongoing commitment to resource replenishment despite challenges related to portfolio optimization, energy transition, and net-zero commitments.
Despite the positive outlook for African oil exploration, Nigeria, a major oil producer with substantial reserves, was notably absent from the list of significant discoveries in 2024. This absence is attributed to a lack of investment and funding within the Nigerian oil sector in recent years, which has hampered exploration activities. However, there are signs of a potential resurgence. Shell’s planned $5 billion investment in the Bonga North Field and Chevron’s discovery of a new oil field in the Niger Delta Basin, with a potential daily output of 17,000 barrels, suggest that Nigeria could feature more prominently in future discovery announcements.
The overall global trend, as highlighted by the S&P Global report, indicates a strategic shift towards high-impact wells in both frontier and mature basins. This strategic approach is driven by the dual need to secure new resources while navigating the complex landscape of energy transition and net-zero obligations. The success of explorations in regions like the Orange Sub-basin and the Cote D’Ivoire Basin demonstrates the potential for substantial discoveries in previously underexplored areas. As companies grapple with the challenges of balancing portfolio optimization, the transition to cleaner energy sources, and meeting net-zero targets, strategic targeting of high-impact wells will be crucial for maintaining a steady supply of oil resources in the coming years. The secretary-general of OPEC, recognizing Africa’s vast untapped potential, has encouraged the continent to unlock its over 120 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, further emphasizing the significance of the region in the future of global oil production.
