The Nigerian government’s conditional cash transfer (CCT) program, designed to alleviate economic hardship following the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of the foreign exchange market, has faced significant challenges in reaching its intended beneficiaries. Despite aiming to support the most vulnerable households, only 36% of the targeted population has received any payments since the program’s relaunch in 2023. Furthermore, the majority of those who did receive funds have only benefited from a single payment, raising concerns about the program’s efficacy and reach. PwC’s mid-year report highlights that while 5.6 million households received at least one transfer, a mere 2.4 million received a second payment, and even fewer, less than 1.3 million, progressed to a third. This staggered disbursement pattern underscores logistical and implementation hurdles that need to be addressed to ensure the program’s effectiveness.
A key factor contributing to the slow pace of disbursement is the requirement for biometric verification linked to the National Identity Number (NIN) or Bank Verification Number (BVN). This process, while designed to enhance transparency and prevent fraud, has created a bottleneck, particularly in rural areas where NIN registration rates are lower. The government initiated a NIN enrolment campaign in April 2025 to address this issue, aiming to improve the identification and verification of eligible households. The success of this campaign will be critical in expanding the program’s reach and ensuring timely support for those most in need. While the government confirmed 2.3 million households cleared for payment in May, the gap between cleared households and actual disbursements suggests persistent challenges in the payment process itself.
The World Bank, a key financial backer of the CCT program with an $800 million loan, has also highlighted the limitations in reach. As of April 30, 2025, $530 million had been disbursed, yet the program’s effectiveness remains constrained by the dependence on biometric verification. The World Bank has called for an expansion of the program and urged the Nigerian government to redouble its efforts in providing support to the most economically vulnerable households. Their concern underscores the need for a more streamlined and efficient disbursement mechanism, particularly given the urgency of the situation for millions of Nigerians facing economic hardship.
Beyond the immediate challenges of disbursement, broader economic factors are also at play. PwC’s report notes that while geopolitical tensions, such as U.S.-China relations and the Middle East conflict, created uncertainty in the first half of 2025, their impact on oil prices was muted. Oil prices actually declined, influenced more by increased output from OPEC+ than by geopolitical risks. This decline, while potentially beneficial for Nigeria’s budget given its reliance on oil revenue, underscores the volatility of the global oil market and the need for diversified revenue streams. The report suggests that sustained geopolitical tensions could still impact oil prices in the medium term, creating both potential opportunities and challenges for Nigeria.
Looking ahead, PwC projects modest GDP growth of 3.4% for Nigeria in 2025, driven by increased crude oil production and growth in sectors like finance, insurance, construction, ICT, and real estate. This projection suggests a degree of resilience in the Nigerian economy despite ongoing challenges. Inflation is expected to moderate to 21.46% in 2025, influenced by a hawkish monetary policy and relative stability in the foreign exchange market. This projected moderation, if realized, could provide some relief to consumers struggling with rising prices.
The success of the CCT program will be crucial in mitigating the impact of economic reforms on vulnerable populations. Addressing the bottlenecks in NIN registration and streamlining the disbursement process are essential steps towards achieving this goal. Furthermore, a more diversified economy, less reliant on volatile oil prices, will be critical for long-term economic stability and the well-being of all Nigerians. The ongoing monitoring and evaluation of the CCT program, coupled with responsive adjustments based on data and feedback, will be vital to ensure its effectiveness and maximize its impact on those most in need. The interplay between global economic trends, domestic policy decisions, and the implementation of social safety nets like the CCT program will continue to shape Nigeria’s economic landscape in the coming months and years.
