Nigerians may be facing an exacerbation of food inflation in 2025, primarily due to persistent challenges in the agricultural sector, experts warn. These challenges include rampant insecurity, poor policy execution, and adverse environmental conditions that have hindered agricultural growth. Stakeholders within the agricultural community have voiced their worries about escalating inflation despite governmental intervention measures, which they believe have had little tangible impact on improving the sector or alleviating hunger and poverty. Kola Aderibigbe, Chairman of the Agro-allied Group at the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, forecasts a continuing rise in food inflation into the next year, attributing this trend largely to disruptions in agricultural productivity.
Recent statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics reveal that food inflation rose sharply from 30.64 percent in September 2023 to 37.77 percent in the same month of the following year. This increase has been largely fueled by price surges in essential commodities, including vegetable oil, beef, and popular staple beverages like Milo and Bournvita. Aderibigbe has emphasized the cyclical nature of the challenges faced by farmers, who remain disillusioned amidst ineffective government policies aimed at bolstering the agricultural landscape. In particular, he noted that a significant number of farmers in the South West are abandoning their fields due to the fear of violent encounters with herdsmen, which he claims are largely foreign.
Aderibigbe expressed grave disappointment in the security efforts of local governments, emphasizing that their promises to protect farmers have proven hollow, with continued invasions on agricultural lands despite ongoing discussions. He contends that insecurity is just one facet of a multifaceted crisis; erratic rainfall patterns and flooding, exacerbated by climate change, are also crippling agricultural productivity. He raised concerns about inadequate government responses to these climatic threats, observing that heavy rainfall, which typically occurs between February and July, has been interrupted, raising questions about the country’s preparedness for climate impacts. With a bleak outlook for the coming year, he warns that food inflation is expected to climb further, urging significant changes in crop management and farming practices among Nigerians.
In discussing potential solutions, Aderibigbe calls for broader urban farming initiatives and innovative approaches to mitigate the anticipated food crisis, suggesting that state governments should consider leasing unused lands to citizens for agricultural purposes. Such measures may serve to buffer communities against the effects of increasing food prices. Meanwhile, Fatimah Gummi, President of the Small-scale Women Farmers Organisation in Nigeria (SWOFON), has echoed these sentiments, indicating that while several agricultural policies have been enacted, their poor implementation has nullified much of their intended benefit. She asserts that many farmers, particularly those engaged in smallholder farming, have seen little improvement due to ineffective policy execution.
Gummi points out that the government’s distribution of crucial agricultural inputs, such as fertilizers and seeds, often fails to arrive at the right time for farmers, particularly in light of late deliveries that occur after planting seasons have ended. This inefficiency deprives farmers of the opportunity to utilize these essential materials effectively, ultimately derailing attempts to bolster food production. She further highlighted the spiraling costs of basic food items, particularly rice and beans, noting that many families now struggle to afford even minimal sustenance. The rise in fuel prices only compounds these difficulties, increasing the costs associated with agricultural operations and inhibiting the feasibility of dry-season farming initiatives.
In conclusion, the concerns raised by agricultural stakeholders reveal a delicate nexus between ineffective government policies, rising insecurity, and climate change implications that threaten Nigeria’s food security. Experts stress the need for a coordinated response that prioritizes the timely provision of resources to farmers, bolstered security measures to protect agricultural lands, and proactive strategies to adapt to climate challenges. Aderibigbe and Gummi both advocate for collaborative efforts that ensure farmers can access adequate support systems and technologies, enabling them to enhance productivity and stabilize the agricultural economy. Without substantial and timely interventions, the looming specter of escalating food inflation may bring further hardship to an already vulnerable Nigerian populace.
